Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market

Dedeoğlu, Dinçer; Kaya, Hüseyin

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.038

Cited by 35 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…17 The oil pass-through to CPI inflation increased from zero (pre-IT regime) to 0.003 (post-IT regime). The evidence of an increasing trend in the oil price pass-through is consistent with Dedeoğlu and Kaya (2014) for Turkey, an oil import dependent emerging market. They argued that as oil becomes more important in the overall cost structure, producers becomes more responsive to oil prices.…”

Section: Tables 4 and 5 Here]supporting

confidence: 70%

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

Baharumshah

Sirag

Soon

2017

Research in International Business and Finance

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Section: Tables 4 and 5 Here]supporting

confidence: 70%

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

Baharumshah

Sirag

Soon

2017

Research in International Business and Finance

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“…Doğan (2013) uses a threshold autoregressive model on manufacturing prices in Turkey and finds that depending on the aggregate demand conditions the pass through can be varied. Arbalı (2003) and Dedeoğlu and Kaya (2014) too, find results supporting the fact that response of prices to exchange rate shocks does not stay the same across time.…”

Section: Exchange Rate Pass-through In Turkey and Related Factorsmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Their results show that pass-through to private manufacturing prices are higher than that of consumer prices. As examples of more recent studies, Dedeoğlu and Kaya (2014) use rolling VAR to assess the change in ERPT to consumer prices over time. Their results are also in line with the studies above.…”

Section: Empirical Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Dynamics in Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation Persistence: The Case of Turkish Economy

Ciftci

Yılmaz

2018

Asian Journal of Economic Modelling

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Article History JEL Classification:C01, E00, E31.As a small open economy, inflation is still largely driven by exchange rate developments in Turkey. Despite the fact that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation has declined after the adoption of explicit inflation targeting in 2003, its contribution to the consumer prices and producer prices inflation is still prominent. Furthermore, recent studies show that inflation persistence appears to be another issue preventing from achieving price stability. This paper aims to explore the non-linear dynamics of ERPT and inflation persistence in the case of Turkey by employing Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models. The main motivation of this study is to identify different regimes characterized by the magnitude of exchange rate movements in which ERPT and persistence in inflation indicators differ. Estimation results for the period [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013][2014][2015][2016][2017] shows that inflation persistence and ERPT for Consumer Price Index (CPI) is high in regime with a sizeable import price shock. Additionally, STR estimation results indicate that ERPT and import price pass-through to Producer Price Index (PPI) is more influential in -high depreciation‖ regime.

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“…Real variables used in this study are the industrial production index (IPI), automobile production, the import volume index, the export volume index, the Ercan Türkan Consumer Index, the non-agricultural unemployment rate, and the total employment excluding agriculture. The IPI, highly correlated with GDP, is often used as a proxy for GDP when monthly output data are needed for analysis (e.g., Civcir and Akçaglayan, 2010;Bildirici et al, 2011;Dedeoglu and Kaya, 2014). Similarly, a simple method used by practitioners to predict the YoY GDP growth rate in Turkey is to use the YoY quarterly IPI with a certain amount of judgment.…”

Section: The Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition

Modugno

Soybilgen

Yazgan

2016

FEDS

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) data in Turkey are released with a very long delay compared with other economies, between 10 and 13 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To infer the current state of the economy, policy makers, media, and market practitioners examine data that are more timely, that are released at higher frequencies than the GDP. In this paper, we propose an econometric model that automatically allows us to read through these more current and higher-frequency data and translate them into nowcasts for the Turkish real GDP. Our model outperforms nowcasts produced by the Central Bank of Turkey, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Moreover, our model allows us to quantify the importance of each variable in our dataset in nowcasting Turkish real GDP. In line with findings for other economies, we find that real variables play the most important role; however, contrary to the findings for other economies, we find that financial variables are as important as surveys.

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Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market

Cited by 35 publications

References 16 publications

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

Nonlinear Dynamics in Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation Persistence: The Case of Turkish Economy

Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition

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