Passed to Fail? Predicting the College Enrollment of GED® Passers

Abstract

Utilizing a data set of over 900,000 enrollees in adult basic education programs in New York State between 2005 and 2013, we examine the college enrollment of GED® passers. Upon enrollment in an adult basic education program, participants were asked whether they wanted to attend college after completion; almost 13,000 students both indicated a desire to attend college and subsequently passed the GED exam. Roughly half of these students reported attending college within 12 months. We use logistic regression to predict which students attended college based on a number of demographic variables and proximity to a community college. Counter to prior research, we find that none of these variables are practically significant predictors of college attendance. Students of different races who are and are not employed, receiving public assistance, single parents, and living close to a community college (among other factors) are virtually equally likely to attend college. We discuss other possible explanations and recommend that future research examine noncognitive and other factors.

“Sigo en lo Mismo”: the impact of papeles on the education of undocumented Latinx migrant and seasonal farmworkers

“…As the GED evolved to measure college-readiness in their exams, applying to college and gaining access is a separate endeavor. Once college-ready, GED earners are more likely to attend community college (Bozick and DeLuca, 2005; Rossi and Bower, 2018).…”

"Can I Get Some Harder Work?": Former Juvenile Offenders Narrated Educational Experiences in Juvenile Correctional Facilities

“…Completing high school is an essential aspect of upward mobility, as numerous benefits are associated with graduating (Rossi & Bower, 2018). High school completion has been established as a predictor of long-term morbidity and mortality (Hahn et al, 2015).…”

“…Despite a steady rise in graduation rates over the last five decades, more than 500,000 students still drop out of high school (McFarland et al, 2016;Rosen et al, 2019). The dropout rate is especially notable among students of racial and ethnic minorities, with close to 50% of African-American and Hispanic students not graduating with their initial class (Rossi & Bower, 2018). Like racial and ethnic minorities, students from low socioeconomic backgrounds are also at a higher risk of dropping out of high school (Joo Former Juvenile Offenders Narrated Educational Experiences in Juvenile Correctional Facilities & Kim, 2016).…”

A New Purpose in GED Education: Towards the Empowerment and Civic Engagement of “Push Out” Youth

“…Murnane et al (2000), for instance, argued that credentials like the GED for young adults who had not completed high school increased their likelihood of gaining post-secondary education experience or technical training. Research has found that GED holders are entering college and other post-secondary education opportunities at a similar rate as high school graduates (Rossi & Bower, 2018). Furthermore, Hamilton (1998) suggested that GED recipients who go on to college had slightly lower completion rates and grade point averages compared to those who graduated high school.…”