Past and projected climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa

Abstract

Children (<5 years) are highly vulnerable during hot weather due to their reduced ability to thermoregulate. There has been limited quantification of the burden of climate change on health in sub-Saharan Africa, in part due to a lack of evidence on the impacts of weather extremes on mortality and morbidity. Using a linear threshold model of the relationship between daily temperature and child mortality, we estimated the impact of climate change on annual heat-related child deaths for the current (1995–2020) and future time periods (2020–2050). By 2009, heat-related child mortality was double what it would have been without climate change; this outweighed reductions in heat mortality from improvements associated with development. We estimated future burdens of child mortality for three emission scenarios (SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585), and a single scenario of population growth. Under the high emission scenario (SSP585), including changes to population and mortality rates, heat-related child mortality is projected to double by 2049 compared to 2005-2014. If 2050 temperature increases were kept within the Paris target of 1.5ºC (SSP119 scenario), approximately 4,000 – 6,000 child deaths per year could be avoided in Africa. The estimates of future heat-related mortality include the assumption of the significant population growth projected for Africa, and declines in child mortality consistent with Global Burden of Disease estimates of health improvement. Our findings support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation measures that are focussed on the health of children.

The Effect of High and Low Ambient Temperature on Infant Health: A Systematic Review

“…However, there is evidence, not included in this review, that the impact of climate change on children is not evenly distributed, but occurs in LMICs that are already experiencing a higher burden of disease [ 21 ]. A study demonstrated that in Africa, climate change has already doubled the heat-related child mortality compared to what would have been expected without climate change [ 58 ]. There is an obvious mismatch between vulnerability to temperature effects and research effort, which needs to be remediated in future work.…”

The Effects of Climate Change on Children’s Education Attainment

“…Local strategy of tree planting, construction and restoration of water features, and actions designed to modify behaviour throughout heatwaves in an area with housing prone to overheating and where a high proportion of children live [44] Vanuatu and Australia Support 282 communities through advancing access to knowledge; delivering technical help and equipment to support climate-resilient agriculture and fisheries; and increasing livelihood chances for rural and remote communities [45] As explained before, children are amongst the most vulnerable groups dealing with health-related risks generated by climate change, mainly because of their reduced ability to cope with its related illnesses or because of their limited capacity to thermoregulate [46]. This is because of their developing organ systems, psychological immaturity, or the nature of the activities in which they are involved on a daily basis [35].…”

Future burden of humid-heat related mortality in Europe aggravated by compound day-night warming and aging

“…In addition to the precise quantitative relationship between heat and mortality, a robust future projection of heat-related risks also requires an understanding of the uncertainties of in climate change and variability, as well as changes in population size and age structure. The traditional use of CMIP5/6 global climate models with a limited number of ensemble members may overlook the naturally evolving variability in the climate system 20,23 , which could further lead to an uncertain range of future heat-related mortality burdens from warming. The emerging single-model baseline large ensemble simulations are useful for sampling internal climate variability and its roles in future heat-related mortality change.…”