Past and prospective energy transitions: Insights from history

Fouquet, Roger; Pearson, Peter J. G.

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.08.014

Cited by 253 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Table 1 summarises Smil's [11] assessment of the time taken for coal, oil and gas to increase from a relatively small share (5%) to much larger shares of total primary energy in the past, identifying an increasing length of time for successive new fuels. Individual sectoral and service energy transitions tend to occur over long periods of time (from 40 to 130 years), while aggregate energy system transitions can take considerably longer [19]. Gruebler [20] observes that rates of transition (away from coal and biomass to oil, gas and electricity) have slowed down markedly since the mid-1970s.…”

Section: How Feasible Are Such Energy System Changes?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis

et al. 2017

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Abstract:The scenarios generated by energy systems models provide a picture of the range of possible pathways to a low-carbon future. However, in order to be truly useful, these scenarios should not only be possible but also plausible. In this paper, we have used lessons from historical energy transitions to create a set of diagnostic tests to assess the feasibility of an example 2 • C scenario (generated using the least cost optimization model, TIAM-Grantham). The key assessment criteria included the rate of deployment of low carbon technologies and the rate of transition between primary energy resources. The rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies were found to exceed the maximum historically observed rate of deployment of 20% per annum. When constraints were added to limit the scenario to within historically observed rates of change, the model no longer solved for 2 • C. Under these constraints, the lowest median 2100 temperature change for which a solution was found was about 2.1 • C and at more than double the cumulative cost of the unconstrained scenario. The analysis in this paper highlights the considerable challenge of meeting 2 • C, requiring rates of energy supply technology deployment and rates of declines in fossil fuels which are unprecedented.

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Section: How Feasible Are Such Energy System Changes?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis

et al. 2017

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“…This complexity means that proposed solutions might lead to unintended and perverse impacts 9,c . Importantly, the scale of the issue, and the difficulties involved with conceptualising this b Energy transition: 'the switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another' 109 .…”

Section: Decarbonisation Needs To Happen On Unprecedentedly Rapid Timmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic narratives in climate change: Towards a unifying narrative to address the action gap on climate change

Bushell

Buisson

Workman

et al. 2017

Energy Research & Social Science

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There is a significant 'action gap' between what scientists argue is necessary to prevent potentially dangerous climate change and what the government, industry and public are doing. This paper argues that a coherent strategic narrative is key to making meaningful progress. It does this by first analysing a number of narratives which have been used to try and create audience buy-in on the need for action on climate change, and those that argue that no action needs to be taken. A framework is then proposed for how compelling and unifying strategic narratives on climate change might be constructed. It is suggested that the unifying strategic narrative could address the complex range of actors who need to be engaged, provide a coherent explanation for government strategy, and harness the drivers of behavioural change needed to meet the challenge. Research into climate change strategic narratives is nascent, but the authors believe that there is much to be gained from pursuing and intensifying this research.Key Words: Narratives; Climate Change; Behaviour Change; Communication. 3 IntroductionIn 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that: "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." 1 In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was signed by 197 countries. It includes Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), engagements which each country has agreed to undertake to mitigate their impact on climate change.In spite of these major international scientific and political achievements, there remains a significant gap between the globally accepted targets for limiting global temperature rise to "safe" levels (2°C target, 1.5°C ambition) 2 and the sum of the contributions by individual countries. The NDCs are likely to realise temperature rises of 2.7 to 3.7°C 3 . There is a further gap between these declared contributions and the policy measures that are currently in place 4 (see Figure 1). This so-called 'action gap' presents a serious challenge to policymakers and to humanity In democracies, creating "buy in" (in other words, the acceptance of an idea by the public as worthwhile) is fundamental in providing the appropriate policy space for more ambitious climate measures to be introduced, and later for the development of greater policy traction on climate initiatives. There has been significant progress in climate communication. The field has beco me more refined, moving away from a tendency for techno-centric solutions towards seeking to understand in a This action gap should not be confused with the "value-action gap", or more formally the "attitude-behaviour inconsistency", which describes the difference between an individual's stated concerns about climate change or other environmental issues and their behavioural response to the problem 107,108 .4 depth how publics perceive the problem 7 . However, there has been little exploration of the role of an overarching mechanism -one which brings together and uti...

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“…Furthermore, the political and infrastructural challenges of implementing such a large-scale change in our energy supply system are difficult. Smil [14] describes the relatively slow transformation of energy systems owing to the complex planning and regulatory developments required to allow changes in [15], introducing a special issue on the theme of transitions, recognize that, unlike past energy transitions, the hoped-for transition to low-carbon energy may not show the private benefits to producer and consumer that drove past transitions. The literature on transformations suggests that it would be highly risky to depend on a single technical 'fix' without exploring alternatives, including material efficiency.…”

Section: Motivations For Materials Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production

Allwood

Ashby

Gutowski

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

131

115

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Material efficiency, as discussed in this Meeting Issue, entails the pursuit of the technical strategies, business models, consumer preferences and policy instruments that would lead to a substantial reduction in the production of high-volume energy-intensive materials required to deliver human well-being. This paper, which introduces a Discussion Meeting Issue on the topic of material efficiency, aims to give an overview of current thinking on the topic, spanning environmental, engineering, economics, sociology and policy issues. The motivations for material efficiency include reducing energy demand, reducing the emissions and other environmental impacts of industry, and increasing national resource security. There are many technical strategies that might bring it about, and these could mainly be implemented today if preferred by customers or producers. However, current economic structures favour the substitution of material for labour, and consumer preferences for material consumption appear to continue even beyond the point at which increased consumption provides any increase in well-being. Therefore, policy will be required to stimulate material efficiency. A theoretically ideal policy measure, such as a carbon price, would internalize the externality of emissions associated with material production, and thus motivate change directly. However, implementation of such a measure has proved elusive, and instead the adjustment of existing government purchasing policies or existing regulations— for instance to do with building design, planning or vehicle standards—is likely to have a more immediate effect.

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Past and prospective energy transitions: Insights from history

Cited by 253 publications

References 28 publications

Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis

Exploring the Feasibility of Low-Carbon Scenarios Using Historical Energy Transitions Analysis

Strategic narratives in climate change: Towards a unifying narrative to address the action gap on climate change

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production

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