Past managerial guidance and returns to variance trading around earnings announcements

Abstract

I investigate the relationship between past managerial guidance and realized variance risk premiums (VRPs)i.e., the difference between implied and realized variancein equity options around earnings announcements. I find that implied variances are lower before earnings announcements but VRPs are higher when firms provide guidance. I also find higher option-implied jump risk when firms issue surprising guidance. Further tests suggest a portion of the higher VRPs are due to changes in perceived higher-order risks, but traders also underreact to the precision of information in short-term guidance. These results are attenuated for firms with a better information environment.