Past, present, and future geographic range of an oro-Mediterranean Tertiary relict: The juniperus drupacea case study

Walas, Łukasz; Sobierajska, Karolina; Ok, Tolga; Dönmez, Alı A.; Kanoğlu, Salih S.; Kharrat, Magda Bou Dagher; Douaihy, Bouchra; Romo, Àngel; Stephan, Jean; Jasiñska, Anna K.; Boratyński, Adam

doi:10.1007/s10113-019-01489-5

Cited by 29 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…These are strongly connected not only with biological diversity (Thuiller et al 2011;Scheffers et al 2016) but also with the economy and well-being of humankind (McMichael et al 2006;Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007). Although climate change mostly threatens rare and specialized species, usually with small extents of natural distribution (Czortek et al 2018;Walas et al 2019), even widely dispersed species, constituting the basis of management, seem to be endangered (Sykes and Prentice 1996;Dyderski et al 2018;Thurm et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible changes in spatial distribution of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe under warming climate

2021

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Juglans regia L. is a species of great importance for environmental management due to attractive wood and nutritious fruits, but also high invasive potential. Thus, uncertainties connected with its range shift are essential for environmental management. We aimed to predict the future climatic optimum of J. regia in Europe under changing climate, to assess the most important climatic factors that determine its potential distribution, and to compare the results obtained among three different global circulation models (GCMs). We used distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and completed it with data from the literature. Using the MaxEnt algorithm, we prepared a species distribution model for the years 2061–2080 using 19 bioclimatic variables. We applied three emission scenarios, expressed by representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 and three GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR. Our study predicted northward shift of the species, with simultaneous distribution loss at the southern edge of the current range, driven by increasing climate seasonality. Temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the predictors of highest importance. General trends are common for the projections presented, but the variability of our projections among the GCMs or RCPs applied (predicted range will contract from 17.4 to 84.6% of the current distribution area) shows that caution should be maintained while managing J. regia populations. Adaptive measures should focus on maintaining genetic resources and assisted migration at the southern range edge, due to range contraction. Simultaneously, at the northern edge of the range, J. regia turns into an invasive species, which may need risk assessments and control of unintended spread.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible changes in spatial distribution of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe under warming climate

2021

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“…Juniperus drupacea, which is distributed in the Middle East and Greek Mountains, still had a wide habitats species in the LGM. With increasing climate change and human activities, habitat fragmentation is serious, and the species is now on the verge of extinction [13]. The extinction of species on earth is continually increasing, and 112,432 species have been listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of threatened species [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Zhao

Zhang

et al. 2020

Forests

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Semiliquidambar cathayensis is a special and endangered plant in China, used for traditional Chinese medicine and in landscape applications. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of S. cathayensis is crucial for its protection and the sustainable use of resources. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model optimized by the ENMeval data packet to analyze the potential geographic distribution changes of S. cathayensis in 12 provinces of Southern China for the different periods since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). Considering the potential geographic distribution changes in the province, and based on the two climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5, the distribution range of S. cathayensis was analyzed and we predicted the range for the 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080). The area under AUC (Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.9388 under these parameters, which indicates that the model is very accurate. We speculate that the glacial period refugia were the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains for S. cathayensis, and central and Western Fujian and Taiwan are likely to be the future climate refugia. In the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka), the growth habitat was 32.41% larger than the modern habitat; in the 2050s and 2070s (except RCP2.6–2070s), the growth habitat will shrink to varying degrees, so efforts to support its in situ and ex situ conservation are urgently needed. The jackknife test showed that the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of S. cathayensis were annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation of the driest month. The annual precipitation may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of S. cathayensis. In general, the centroid of the distribution of S. cathayensis will move northward. The centroid of the adaptive habitats will move northward with the highest degree of climate abnormality. We think that Hainan Island is the most likely origin of S. cathayensis. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of genetic resources protection measures, the construction of core germplasm resources, and the study of the formation and evolution of Hamamelidaceae.

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“…On the contrary, they are maintained by frequent summer-fog regimes 23 , 24 that increase annual and summer precipitation and confer a submediterranean character to these areas. Also, this climatic and topographic heterogeneities favoured by small mountain ranges play a crucial role as identified across major refugia areas throughout the Mediterranean Basin 25 , 26 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Late Quaternary range shifts of marcescent oaks unveil the dynamics of a major biogeographic transition in southern Europe

Vila-Viçosa¹,

Gonçalves²,

Honrado³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Marcescent forests are ecotones distributed across southern Europe that host increased levels of biodiversity but their persistence is threatened by global change. Here we study the range dynamics of these forests in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during the Late Quaternary, a period of profound climate and anthropic changes. We modeled and compared the distribution of eight oak taxa for the present and two paleoclimatic environments, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21 kya) and the Mid-Holocene (MH, ~ 6 kya). Presence records were combined with bioclimatic and topographic data in an ensemble modelling framework to obtain spatial projections for present and past conditions across taxa. Substantial distribution shifts were projected between the three studied periods, that were explained by precipitation, winter cold and terrain ruggedness. Results were congruent with paleoclimatic records of the IP and showed that range shifts of these contact zones concurred with range dynamics of both Submediterranean and Temperate oaks. Notably, the distribution ranges of hybrid oaks and marcescent forests matched throughout the late Quaternary. This study contributes to unveil the complex Late-Quaternary biogeography of the ecotone belt occupied by marcescent forests and, more broadly, of Mediterranean oaks. Improved knowledge of species’ responses to climate dynamics will allow us to anticipate and manage future range shifts driven by climate change.

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Past, present, and future geographic range of an oro-Mediterranean Tertiary relict: The juniperus drupacea case study

Cited by 29 publications

References 71 publications

Possible changes in spatial distribution of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe under warming climate

Possible changes in spatial distribution of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe under warming climate

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Late Quaternary range shifts of marcescent oaks unveil the dynamics of a major biogeographic transition in southern Europe

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