Pastoral Farming in the Ili Delta, Kazakhstan, under Decreasing Water Inflow: An Economic Assessment

Abstract

<jats:p>River deltas provide the most productive pastures in Central Asia. Simultaneously they are highly vulnerable to water inflow changes. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the short- and medium-term effect of reduced water inflow on farmers’ performance within the Ili Delta. Primary data were collected through 35 interviews with farmers and additional experts in 2015. Production parameters for three types of individual farms were estimated and entered into a full cost accounting. Contribution margins were calculated for three scenarios: (I) sufficient water inflow (normal situation), (II) decreasing water inflow, and (III) significantly reduced water inflow (worst case). Farmers purchase hay to adapt to pasture production loss due to decreasing water inflow. This more than doubled the variable costs of worst case in comparison to normal situation for small-, medium-, and large-scale type of individual farm. Monte Carlo simulation indicates a risk of 74% (small-scale farm) and 3% (medium-scale farm) that already variable costs will exceed revenues. Despite their high fixed costs, only large-scale individual farms generate positive net farm income from operations in the worst case due to government payments from participation in elite bull program that account for one-third of total revenue.</jats:p>

Ecosystem Services and Problems of Reedbed Management in the Ili River Delta

“…First of all, the huge biomass of reed in terms of area and volume is an important component of pasture in traditional livestock grazing (Fig. 3) and in the creation of fodder reserves in winter for various types of farms in the Ili delta [21].…”

Seeing beyond negotiations: the impacts of the Belt and Road on Sino-Kazakh transboundary water management

“…For example, BRI investment has turned towards the beef trade within the Ili basin, funding the expansion of extensive feedlots supplied by irrigated alfalfa and fodder. This is in turn encouraged by the Kazakh state, who see the development of their 'elite bull' breeding programme as crucial to the success of exporting high value meat products to China (Baranowski et al, 2020). Seemingly little thought has been given to the potential consequences for the basin as a whole if irrigation and land use change continue as part of the expansion of the livestock trade.…”

Assessing the influence of cereal-legume mixtures on the productivity of degraded pastures in the Kostanay region of northern Kazakhstan

“…For the development of animal husbandry in Kazakhstan, it is necessary to create sustainable forage-based food. Given its potential, there are opportunities to introduce highly productive fodder crops and efficient technologies into agricultural production (Baranowski et al, 2020). In Kazakhstan, the sources of plant feed for farm animals are pastures (187 million ha), hayfields (5.0 million ha), and fodder arable land (2.5 million ha) (Popov et al, 2017).…”