Pathways of Oil Spills from Potential Cuban Offshore Exploration: Influence of Ocean Circulation

Abstract

The DeepWater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in 2010 raised the public awareness on potential spills from offshore exploration activities. It became apparent that knowledge of potential oil pathways in the case of a spill is important for preparedness and response. This study focuses on such scenarios from potential oil spills in the Cuban Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a vast area in the GoM and the Straits of Florida that has not received much attention in oil spill studies, even though this region has been under evaluation for oil exploration. The Cuban EEZ is also in the crossroads of heavy tanker traffic, from the areas of intense oil exploration in the Northern GoM to the adjacent Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The study also evaluates how the oil transport and fate are influenced by the main circulation patterns of the GoM, such as the Loop Current (LC) system and the mesoscale dynamics inside the Straits of Florida, such as the Florida Current (FC) and the accompanying cyclonic (along the northern Straits) and anticyclonic (along the Cuban coasts) eddies. We used oil spill numerical simulations, in tandem with high resolution data-assimilative ocean simulations, to test the fate of potential oil spills originating from different release sites within the Cuban EEZ during a six-year period (2011–2016) to exhibit certain aspects of interannual variability of ocean dynamics. The LC extended and retracted phases in the GoM interior revealed different impacts on the oil fate depending on the release site. The meandering of the FC, which is strongly related to the mesoscale eddies that evolve inside the Straits of Florida, controlled oil pathways either towards the northern Straits or along the Cuban coast. The most likely scenario for oil stranding at southern Florida is from oil released at the deep central Straits of Florida. Oil release near the Yucatan Strait and in the deep Gulf interior showed the highest risk of overall oil beaching at the Gulf beaches. The regional (e.g., LC) and local (e.g., eddies in the Straits) dynamics are proven to be significant indicators to predict the oil fate and stranding along the Gulf coasts, which should lead to improving planning and preparedness in the case of a spill in the Cuban EEZ.

Modes of Operation and Forcing in Oil Spill Modeling: State-of-Art, Deficiencies and Challenges

“…However, the model allows the coupling with the coarser resolution forecasts from CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environmental Service), FVCOM, SHYFEM, CYCOFOS, HYCOM, Norshelf for hydrodynamics and ocean state, and NOAA, ECMWF, and SKIRON wind fields with netCDF and many different files format. The OpenOil has been applied in several cases worldwide, such as the Norwegian Sea [23], the Gulf of Mexico and the Cuban coast [41][42][43][44], the Thracian Sea [45], and the Caribbean Sea [46].…”

Numerical modeling of oil spills in the Gulf of Morrosquillo, Colombian Caribbean

“…the oil drift module OpenOil, a 3D oil spill transport and fate model, which is based on the open source, Python-based, trajectory framework of OpenDrift ( [8]; [12]). This system has been used by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) for operational purposes as an oil spill contingency and search and rescue model, and for drifter and oil slick observations in the North Sea, being widely used by the scientific community in several oceanic regions (e.g., Jones et al [16]; Hole et al [17]; Androulidakis et al [18]; Brekke et al [19]; Hole et al [20]).…”

Technological Developments Since the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

“…Examples of research that utilized the OpenDrift trajectory modeling framework include DWH spill simulations by Hole et al (2019), which showed that a large river outflow reduced the total amount of stranded oil by ~50% compared with no river input; these results compared well with satellite observations of the DWH surface oil patch. Using OpenDrift to simulate oil spills in the Cuban Exclusive Economic Zone, Androulidakis et al (2020) showed the most likely scenario for oil stranding along the southern Florida coast would be from a release in the deep central Straits of Florida and, for oil stranding at Gulf of Mexico beaches, would be from a release near the Yucatán Strait and in the deep Gulf interior.…”