Pathways to 100% Electrification in East Africa by 2030

Abstract

In spite of abundant generation potential, as of 2019 East Africa has an electricity access level of 36%, with over 140 million people without service. Here, a bot-tom-up geospatial model (OnSSET) is used to estimate least-cost pathways to universal access to electricity by 2030 for different consumption-tier objectives under three regional grid electricity generation mix scenarios. Results suggest median total required investments of $57 and $110 billion for guaranteeing basic (160 and 44 kWh/person/year in urban and rural areas) and moderate—i.e. including potential to enable some productive uses—(423 and 160 kWh/person/year) consumption for newly connected households by 2030, respectively. This corresponds to an average of $5.6 billion/year, and implies median capacity additions of 12.2 GW (59% on-grid, 37% mini-grids, and 4% standalone solutions). At least further $2.7 billion/year in generation capacity are required to satisfy the projected demand growth from already electrified consumers. A grid electricity scenario with 25% lower photovoltaic costs and a higher penetration of renewables reveals to be up to 10% cheaper and 46% less carbon-intensive, while also requiring less up-front investment. To achieve such objectives, investment must be channelled within an enabling policy environment, which we discuss.

The impacts of incentive policies on improving private investment for rural electrification in Nigeria – A geospatial study

“…A comparative study [ 30 ] has identified the SDG and multilayer data integration of the six most used geospatial planning tools at a continental level. Studies at the country level in Africa were conducted in Nigeria [ 31 , 32 ], Kenya [ [33] , [34] , [35] ], Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire [ 36 , 37 ], Ghana [ 38 , 39 ], Mozambique [ 40 ], Ethiopia [ 41 ], Malawi [ 42 ] and Uganda [ 43 ], other studies are conducted at the regional level [ 44 ].…”

Incorporating Elicited Preferences for Equality into Electricity System Planning Modeling

“…These system planning models often use least-cost approaches to optimize generation and transmission investments in a national electrification plan. For example, in two SSA-based studies, the focus and findings were around the investment needed to provide adequate access [12], or how differences in demand drive different optimal systems (i.e., low demand: standalone photovoltaics and diesel generators vs. high demand: grid and mini-grid systems) [13]. Kemausuor et al used a decision support tool to explore the cost of different electricity supply options in unelectrified communities in Ghana [14].…”

Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal electricity access (SDG7) in forty-eight African nations

“…Other studies also focused either on a regional or a national scale analysis. Falchetta et al [34] modeled only the electricity supply system of East Africa by using OnSSET to estimate least-cost pathways to achieve universal access by 2030 under different electricity consumption levels. Nevertheless, this study does not consider the trade implications with the other power pools and leaves out a detailed representation of the grid power generation mix and consequently how grid cost is affected.…”