Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives by 2050: Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model

Abstract

In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term vision by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although progress in achieving a more sustainable development has been made in some areas, overall, actions have not been able to bend the trend in critical areas (including those related to the so-called food-water-energy nexus). Here, we analyze how different combinations of technological measures and behavioral changes could contribute to achieving a set of sustainability objectives, taking into account the interlinkages between them. The objectives include eradicating hunger, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change, conserving biodiversity and controlling air pollution. The analysis identifies different pathways that achieve these objectives simultaneously, but they all require substantial transformations in the energy and food systems, that go far beyond historic progress and currently formulated policies. The analysis also shows synergies and trade-offs between achieving the different objectives, concluding that achieving them requires a comprehensive approach. The scenario analysis does not point at a fundamental trade-off between the objectives related to poverty eradication and those related to environmental sustainability. The different pathways of achieving the set of long-term objectives and their implications for short-term action can contribute to building a comprehensive strategy to meet the SDGs by proposing near-term actions.

National baselines for the Sustainable Development Goals assessed in the SDG Index and Dashboards

“…T o achieve the Sustainable Development Goals 1 (Supplementary Table 1) and implement the Paris Agreement, developed and developing countries alike will need to transform their energy systems, ecosystem management, agriculture and land use, urban management, material use, gender outcomes, health, education, governance and other areas 2,3 . In addition to requiring greater financial resources and political commitments, these transformations will also place major demands on science to devise data and monitoring frameworks 4 , to relate planetary boundaries to national sustainability objectives 5,6 , to develop innovative solutions and to chart out integrated pathways for achieving the goals 2,7 , taking account of the trade-offs and synergies across goals and targets 8,9 .…”

From the Challenges Imposed by Climate Change to the Preservation of Ecosystem Processes and Services

“…Pathways to achieve global sustainability goals by 2050" [20] shows the difficulties in managing politics to sustain "food, land and biodiversity" and "energy and climate". Authors appeal to an international consensus for developing better Many efforts have been taken, and many conferences and discussions have been prepared and attended by interested parties, and many reports emphasize similar preoccupations that one must ask: is it possible to achieve SDGs until 2050?…”

“…The two last issues "are couched in very broad terms and often lack specific baselines and indicators" [50]. Also, for Mace et al, [50] targets need to be categorized, for which they propose categories by color Van Vuuren et al [20] proposed clear short-term policy priorities, like: accelerate sustainable agricultural intensification (by creating proper conditions); reduce hunger (by improving a more robust food system); mainstream biodiversity considerations in land-use/water-use planning and management; and promote changes, such as in consumption patterns. Mace et al [50] strongly emphasize that "parties need to adopt a small set of focused, relevant, efficient, and achievable targets", and they add that "these targets should have scientifically and socially appropriate outcomes and timescales, support biodiversity's role in human well-being, be linked to legislative and regulatory processes, be relevant at global scales but reflect local and national interests, and be open to accurate and efficient reporting".…”

On metrics and financing for the Sustainable Development Goals

“…These include persistent extreme poverty, poor outcomes in human health and education, widespread malnutrition, high inequality measured by income or other characteristics, poor access to infrastructure, growing water stress, the degradation of terrestrial and marine ecosystems, pollution, and climate change. Under business-as-usual trajectories, the environmental challenges in particular are expected to worsen significantly (Sachs, 2015;van Vuuren et al, 2015). Increased international cooperation is required to address these challenges since many operate at planetary scales Steffen et al, 2015) while others require technological and financial support from rich to poor countries to complement sound domestic policies (CMH, 2003;Sachs et al, 2004a;.…”

“…The resulting 17 SDGs (United Nations, 2015a) represent a political compromise by the 193 member states of the United Nations that has been critically reviewed (ICSU and ISSC, 2015) and raises major challenges of measurement, financing, and implementation. The SDGs are much broader than the MDGs in that they are very ambitious, and unlikely to be met under a business-as-usual pathway (Joshi et al, 2015;van Vuuren et al, 2015;Häyhä et al, 2016). Yet, contrary to the early years of the MDG period (McArthur, 2013), governments around the world are already adopting the SDGs as operational goals for sustainable development (United Nations, 2017).…”