Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

Abstract

Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO2 emissions (10,134 MtCO2), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO2) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.

Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence and Exploring Just Energy Transition Pathways in Indonesia Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

“…Reyseliani and Purwanto [17] investigated modelling approaches across all power grids in achieving 100% renewable energy using another modelling tool, VEDA TIMES. Paiboonsin et al [18] modelled six clean energy transition scenarios including net zero 2050 and 2060 using OSeMOSYS. However, the impact of Indonesia's pursuit of a just energy transition on its future power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and capital investments remains to be thoroughly explored.…”

Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition in Egypt’s Energy Sector

“…National-scale examples of previous OSeMOSYS modelling projects include the exploration of the possibility of a clean energy transition in Indonesia's electricity sector [18]. This research uses OSeMOSYS to conclude that large-scale renewable energy projects and the retirement of coal power stations are critical pathways to achieving a clean energy transition for Indonesia.…”