Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Veysey, Jason; Octaviano, Claudia; Calvin, Katherine; Martínez, Sara Herreras; Kitous, Alban; McFarland, James; Zwaan, Bob van der

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2015.04.011

Cited by 53 publications

(37 citation statements)

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“…These national GDP projections are based on the Brazilian long term National Energy Plan, which projects an average GDP growth of 4% per year until 2050. Mexico's GDP in the global model projections reaches a level of about US$ 2 -4 trillion by 2050, which is the same as the range reported by Veysey et al (2015).…”

Section: Comparison With the National Model Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Mexico is projected to reach about a 65% -100% share of low-carbon energy sources in the mitigation scenarios, which is confirmed by Veysey et al (2015). They conclude that all models included in their study find a significant decarbonisation necessary to reach Mexico's greenhouse gas emission reduction target, with 'clean sources 3 ' reaching a share of 80% to 100% of electricity generation by 2050.…”

Section: Comparison With the National Model Resultssupporting

confidence: 59%

“…The Indian team noted that the projected trend of declining energy intensity agrees with their results of decoupling of energy use and GDP growth, although rates of decoupling might differ. Veysey et al (2015) Figure 4 gives projected total CO 2 emissions, while Figure 5 presents projected CO 2 emissions per capita. Worldwide, a strong emission increase can be observed in the baseline scenarios, mostly driven by the trend in low-income countries.…”

Section: Comparison With the National Model Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

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SummaryGovernments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2 o C with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2 o C target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues. , Roberta Pierfederici Keywords AbstractGovernments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2 o C with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2 o C target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO 2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidl...

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Section: Comparison With the National Model Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Comparison With the National Model Resultssupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: Comparison With the National Model Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

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“…the type of energy technologies deployed; we find that a comparison between the two yields little additional insight for the ways in which climate change mitigation can be implemented, so that we only show results for the former in one instance and restrict ourselves to inspecting the High CO 2 price scenario in all other cases. The Low CO 2 price scenario yields a CO 2 emission pathway that is only somewhat (typically around 10%) below the one we find for the Core baseline scenario (while the technology mix and diffusion trends remain largely unaltered), which constitutes another reason for leaving a more detailed inspection of the Low CO 2 price scenario to several of the country-specific papers in this special issue (that includes studies on Argentina (Di Sbroiavacca et al, 2016), Brazil (Lucena et al, 2016), Colombia (Calderon et al, 2016) and Mexico (Veysey et al, 2016) The characteristics of the models we use determine to significant extent the nature of their outcome. In Table 1 we therefore summarize the main features, representations and assumptions of the six models employed in our cross-model comparison study, in an attempt to clarify some of our findings.…”

Section: Models and Scenario Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

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Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S. ; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K. ; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M. ; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N. Published in: Energy Economics DOI:10.1016/j.eneco. 2015.11.019 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): van der Zwaan, B., Kober, T., Calderon, S., Clarke, L., Daenzer, K., Kitous, A., ... Di Sbroiavacca, N. (2016 General rightsIt is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulationsIf you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: http://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO 2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO 2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two-to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050. We find that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, ...

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“…Veysey et al (2015) concluded that achieving Mexico's long-term climate change mitigation goals would require the power sector to become virtually zero emissions by 2050. Yet, observers have noted the lack of certainty about the role that renewable energy will play in the short-and long-term development of the power sector.…”

Section: Way Forwardmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Political Economy of Clean Energy Transitions

Arndt¹,

Miller²,

Tarp³

et al. 2017

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work. Terms of use: Documents inIt is permitted to reuse, share and adapt this work, subject to the following terms:Attribution -appropriate credit is given to the original work, the copyright holder and creator, and any changes made to the work are properly indicated.Non-Commercial -the work, or any adaptation of the work, may not be used, distributed or reproduced in any format, by any means, for commercial purposes.Share-Alike -the work, or any adaptation of the work is distributed under the same licence terms as the original, with a URL link provided to the licence.Some rights reserved. ForewordSustainable energy transitions involve the shift of resources between competing industrial sectors and political constituencies. Stakeholders in this process have varying degrees of political and economic power, and understanding how political economic factors influence clean energy transitions is crucial to effective policy formulation and facilitating transitions to sustainable energy systems. In partnership with the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA), UNU-WIDER gathered together a substantial group of experts from around the world-from both developed and developing countries-to launch a multidisciplinary research project seeking to contribute to our enhanced understanding of these factors. The project sought to facilitate an energy transition that will generate very large environmental and economic benefits, particularly over the long run. The beneficiaries of clean energy transitions are highly diffuse and include future generations not yet born. This book is the distilled essence of the cross-cutting academic project. I express my sincere and professional appreciation to the large group of expert authors for their dedication to the project, and to my fellow editors in helping bring together the book for readers to enjoy and absorb along with the findings and policy implications.

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Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Cited by 53 publications

References 9 publications

Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

Regional Low-Emission Pathways from Global Models

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

The Political Economy of Clean Energy Transitions

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