2023
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3483612/v1
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Pattern-based forecasting enhances the prediction skill of European heatwaves at the sub-seasonal range

Emmanuel Rouges,
Laura Ferranti,
Holger Kantz
et al.

Abstract: The prediction of European heatwaves at the subseasonal range is of key importance to mitigate their impact. This study builds on previous work (Rouges et al., 2023) which identifies five main European heatwave types based on their atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). These CPs are potential predictors of heatwaves, as these patterns are connected with a high probability of 2-meter temperature exceeding the 90th percentile. Therefore, the aim of this study is to use these patterns to construct a pattern-bas… Show more

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