Patterns of livestock loss associated with a recolonizing wolf population in Germany

Abstract

Predation on livestock presents a daunting challenge for human–carnivore coexistence in agricultural landscapes. In Germany, the recolonization of wolves is ongoing and its consequences are insufficiently understood. Knowledge about which livestock species are susceptible to wolf predation, which farm types are predisposed to attacks by wolves, and when predation on livestock occurs is valuable for mitigating stakeholder conflicts. To this end, we analyzed 14 years of monitoring data and assessed the livestock prey spectrum, identified correlates between predation on livestock, farm type and livestock category, and described temporal patterns of livestock loss caused by a recolonizing wolf population in the state of Brandenburg (Germany). Among a total of 1387 recorded cases, 42% were unequivocally attributed to wolves (SCALP criteria C1 and C2) and 12% of cases were not caused by wolves. The number of head of livestock killed during a single wolf attack was mediated by farm type and livestock species; losses per event were greater in full-time farms vs. other farm types and greater in sheep, farmed deer and other livestock species, compared to cattle. While sheep were the most commonly killed livestock species, the increase in wolf territories over the investigation period was associated with a widening of the domestic prey species spectrum. Count regression models provided evidence for the increasing frequency of predation events over the 14-year period, along with an exponential increase in wolf territories. Predation on livestock occurred throughout the year, yet seasonality of events was evident and differed across livestock categories. Predation on sheep peaked in the fall, coinciding with the post-weaning period of wolf offspring. Predation on cattle peaked in the spring, coinciding with the cattle calving period. These results call for renewed investment in the implementation of prevention methods for all susceptible domestic species, particularly during times of elevated predation risk.

Changes in Wolf Occupancy and Feeding Habits in the Northern Apennines: Results of Long-Term Predator–Prey Monitoring

“…Coexistence with large carnivores has always generated considerable conflicts, and their conservation and management have been highly controversial and often politicized [ 1 ]. In European-human-dominated landscapes, where top predators have been on the rise for many decades [ 2 , 3 , 4 ], social conflicts are becoming more frequent and more complex (e.g., depredation of pets [ 5 ]), following the general expansion of the species toward highly urbanized areas.…”

The impact of large carnivore population density on sheep and goat losses in Slovakia

“…In contrast to regions where carnivores have recently regained space (Linnell et al 1999), damage to livestock may look different in areas where they persisted (Grente et al 2022, Khorozyan and Heurich 2022). Expanding range, boosting population, and increasing probability of livestock losses all occur simultaneously as wolves return to their former habitats in Europe (Widman and Elofsson 2018, Ferdyń et al 2022, Kiffner et al 2022. A better understanding of the effects of changes in abundance and density on livestock losses is possible in regions where the range of large carnivores is more or less consistent over a long period (Šuba et al 2023).…”