PBL parameterization schemes sensitivity analysis on WRF modeling of a tornadic event environment in Skala Lakonia in September 2015

Mylonas, Markos P.; Nastos, P. T.; Matsangouras, Ioannis T.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.11.023

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The medicane is further evaluated using Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), an indicator of atmospheric instability, which is a necessary condition for the development of severe weather events. CAPE has been found to be a prominent indicator and potential predictor for tropical cyclones (Huang and Liang 2010;Lee and Frisius 2018;Mylonas et al 2018) but has not been prominently used for medicanes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to tropical cyclones, we also consider medicanes ("Mediterranean Hurricanes"), rare intense and high-impact extratropical cyclones in the Mediterranean region (Ulbrich et al 2009;Cavicchia et al 2014;Mylonas et al 2018;Flaounas et al 2021). These events occur on average 1.6 times / year (Flaounas et al 2015) and can lead to severe damage in coastal areas associated with flooding and high winds.…”

Section: Tropical Cyclones and Medicanesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe

Domeisen

White

Afargan‐Gerstman

et al. 2022

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosys tems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for probabilistic subseasonal prediction on timescales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit predictability on timescales of 3-4 weeks, while this timescale is 2-3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least predictable among the considered case studies. Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic predictability on timescales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event - dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal predictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%