“…In this section, I apply the MESMLM-AR(p) model to empirically test the "democratic advantage" hypothesis about sovereign default which has been often suggested in political economy of international finance (Archer, Biglaiser, and DeRouen 2007;Goetze and Guzina 2008;Vreeland 2008;Baliga, Lucca, and Sjo¨stro¨m 2009;Rost, Schneider, and Kleibl 2009;Beaulieu, Cox, and Saiegh 2012). More specifically, the hypothesis is that regime duration increases the risk of sovereign default in anocracies, but reduces the defaulting probability in full democracies and stark autocracies.…”