Peak discharges and flow volumes for streams in the Northern Plains, 1996-97

Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Burr, M.J.; Mitton, G.B.

doi:10.3133/cir1185b

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…During the winter of 1996‐1997 these factors produced a catastrophic regional snowmelt flood with an estimated return period of between 100‐200 years (Macek‐Rowland et al , 2001b). Total direct flood damages within the Grand Forks, North Dakota/East Grand Forks, Minnesota metropolitan area exceeded $2bn, making it the most costly flood, on a per capita basis, for a major metropolitan area in US history (Macek‐Rowland et al , 2001a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Caveant admonitus (“Let the forewarned beware”)

Todhunter

2011

Disaster Prev and Management

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PurposeThis paper aims to review the performance of the flood forecasting, warning, and response system (FFWRS) during the 1997 Red River of the North flood to identify the factors that contributed to FFWRS underperformance during this flood disaster.Design/methodology/approachThe individual components of the FFWRS are reviewed – data collection, flood forecasting, forecast dissemination, decision‐making, and action implementation, as well as the communication linkages between each system category. The unique challenges and breakdowns that occurred at each system category and communication linkage are identified for this catastrophic flood event.FindingsForecast uncertainty was poorly communicated by flood forecasters, and misunderstood by decision makers. Both forecasters and decision makers were rigidly committed to probability‐thinking based on what they thought was most likely to happen; neither group adequately considered the possibility of a worst‐case scenario.Practical implicationsForecast uncertainty must be clearly communicated to and understood by local decision makers. Significant efforts at improved knowledge transfer to decision makers should be made to improve their ability to make rapid and informed decisions during catastrophic hazard events.Originality/valueDecision makers would benefit from adopting a possibility‐thinking approach that thoroughly considered the possibility of a worst‐case scenario before such an event actually occurred.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%