Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Elzen, Michel den; Vuuren, Detlef van

doi:10.1073/pnas.0701598104

Cited by 59 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Model differ in the economic, technological and sectoral representation and in the way they are solved, with some models maximizing an inter-temporal objective function (such as economic activity) and others simulating a set of equilibria (see the SOM for individual model description and references to documentation). Models generate global long-term scenarios for a number of regions or countries that can be used to inform climate and energy policies and to translate long-term climate objectives into potential medium-term courses of actions [4][5][6][7][8][9][10] . Scenarios from IAMs provide important input to scientific reviews such as the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report.…”

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confidence: 99%

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

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Integrated assessment models can help quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post 2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to 2°C. We provide key information for all the major economies such as the year of emission peaking, the regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.So far, international climate policy has been ineffective in curbing the rise of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Still, ambitious climate targets such as the 2°C target require a phase-out of global emissions by the end of the century, and an active participation of all world regions in climate policy 1 . Given the many obstacles to global cooperative action on climate change, the question remains how diverse national climate policies can be coordinated and strengthened globally. Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Durban Platform for Enhanced 2 Action 2 provides an important platform for a post-2020 international climate agreement. It contains several innovative elements, most notably a focus on the major economies that goes beyond the traditional divide between Annex I and non-Annex I countries. The Durban platform calls for a new climate treaty to be agreed in 2015 and implemented as early as 2020. The recently announced USChina climate deal and the EU climate framework provide encouraging steps forwards, but aligning the incentives of the major emitters in pursuing stringent climate policies remains a challenge. In this paper, we aim at assessing the implications of post 2020 climate policies with specific reference to the major economies. We provide quantitative estimates of regional emission budgets, timing of emission peaking, and distribution of mitigation costs. We examine the role of carbon markets and different burden sharing schemes to alleviate distributional inequalities and finance the investment needs in low carbon mitigation technologies. In order to quantify these policy relevant variables, we resort to global models.Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are tools designed to investigate the implications of achieving climate and other objectives in an integrated and rigorous framework. They are numerical models that account for major interactions among energy, land-use, economic and climate systems. Model differ in the economic, technological and sectoral representation and in the way they are solved, with some models maximizing an inter-temporal objective function (such as economic activity) and others simulating a set of equilibria (see the SOM for individual model description and references to documentation). Models generate global long-term scenarios for a number of regions or countries that ca...

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Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

et al. 2014

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“…Recent papers have argued that, for a finite period of time, radiative forcing could overshoot the long-term equilibrium level consistent with a temperature limit and a given climate sensitivity; see den Elzen and van Vuuren (2007), Harvey (2007b) and Matthews and Caldeira (2008). Such overshoots are possible due to the inertia of the climate system; see den Elzen and van Vuuren (2007) and Wigley (2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such overshoots are possible due to the inertia of the climate system; see den Elzen and van Vuuren (2007) and Wigley (2004). This inertia is mainly a result of the large heat uptake by the oceans (Hansen et al 1985(Hansen et al , 2005Harvey and Schneider 1985;Stouffer 2004;Wigley and Schlesinger 1985;Meehl et al 2005;Wigley 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…den Elzen and van Vuuren (2007), Harvey (2007b) and Matthews and Caldeira (2008) analyze the importance of climate inertia for temperature stabilization scenarios. den Elzen and van Vuuren (2007) argue that, given a target below or at which the increase in global average surface temperature above the pre-industrial level is to be kept, it is cost-effective to let the radiative forcing overshoot its long-run equilibrium level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

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Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles

Johansson

2010

Climatic Change

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Political leaders in numerous nations argue for an upper limit of the global average surface temperature of 2 K above the pre-industrial level, in order to attempt to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change. This paper analyzes what this limit implies in terms of radiative forcing, emissions pathways and abatement costs, for a range of assumptions on rate of ocean heat uptake and climate sensitivity.The primary aim is to analyze the importance of ocean heat uptake for radiative forcing pathways that temporarily overshoot the long-run stabilization forcing, yet keep the temperature increase at or below the 2 K limit. In order to generate such pathways, an integrated climate-economy model, MiMiC, is used, in which the emissions pathways generated represent the least-cost solution of stabilizing the global average surface temperature at 2 K above the pre-industrial level. We find that the level of overshoot can be substantial. For example, the level of overshoot in radiative forcing in 2100 ranges from about 0.2 to 1 W/m 2 , where the value depends strongly and positively on the effective diffusivity of heat in the oceans. Measured in relative terms, the level of radiative forcing overshoot above its longrun equilibrium level in 2100 is 20% to 60% for high values of climate sensitivity (i.e., about 4.5 K) and 8% to 30% for low values of climate sensitivity (i.e., about 2 K). In addition, for cases in which the radiative forcing level can be directly stabilized at the equilibrium level associated with a specific climate sensitivity and the 2 K limit, the net present value abatement cost is roughly cut by half if overshoot pathways are considered instead of stabilization of radiative forcing at the equilibrium level without an overshoot.

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“…CDR is important because it empowers "overshoot" trajectories (den Elzen and van Vuuren 2007). An overshoot trajectory achieves a CO 2e concentration target at a specific future time while exceeding that target during some intermediate time.…”

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Modeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions

2013

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This article introduces the Climatic Change special issue dedicated to negative emissions technologies, also known as carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. CDR is the only class of mitigation options able to reduce the carbon stock in the atmosphere significantly. In this special issue CDR is explored from the perspectives of integrated assessment, technology optimization, environmental science, and political science.

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Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Cited by 59 publications

References 27 publications

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles

Modeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions

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