Pengaruh Sistem Perbankan, Makroekonomi, Dinamika Pasar Keuangan terhadap Perkembangan Sukuk Korporasi

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence the development of corporate sukuk in Indonesia. The data used are monthly data for 2013-2016 macroeconomic variables, crude oil price, conventional banking loans, interest rate spread, sharia banking assets, outstanding Indonesian corporate bonds, market value of sharia stock market capitalization, and standard deviation the Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate (JIBOR). In this study using time series data analysis, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) which is a development and complements the weaknesses of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis. The results of this study indicate that there is a positive influence on world crude oil prices, the development of corporate bonds, and Islamic banking assets on the development of corporate sukuk. In addition, sharia stock market capitalization, interest rate spread, and market interest rate volatility negatively impact the development of corporate sukuk. These results indicate an increase in demand and supply in corporate sukuk in Indonesia. This study found a complementary relationship between corporate bonds and Islamic banking on the development of corporate sukuk so that synergy and coordination of stakeholders is expected, namely the government, industry players, companies and related parties.

Macroeconomic Perspective on the Growth of Corporate Sharia Bonds (Sukuk) in Indonesia

“…Previous research used as a reference still has some research gaps in the research variables, such as the economic growth variable presented in the research results of Munir & Rosyidah (2021); Pramidiyanti & Indrawati (2019); Zusryn et al, (2019) that economic growth variables do not affect the growth of corporate Sharia bonds (sukuk), in contrast to the research by Mulyadi et al, (2022) which explained that economic growth variables have a positive effect on corporate sukuk growth. Furthermore, the inflation variable research results of Ardiansyah & Lubis (2017); Masitoh & Fajri (2020); Wahyudi & Shofawati (2019) explained that inflation affects the growth of Islamic bonds, different from the results of research by Mulyadi et al, (2022); Munir & Rosyidah (2021); Pramidiyanti & Indrawati (2019); Zusryn et al, (2019) which explained that inflation does not affect the growth of corporate sukuk. Furthermore, the variable money supply research findings of Ardiansyah & Lubis (2017); Masitoh & Fajri (2020); Munir & Rosyidah (2021); Pramidiyanti & Indrawati (2019) explained that the money supply affects the growth of sharia bonds, in contrast to the research findings of Mulyadi et al, (2022) explained that the money supply does not affect the growth of corporate sukuk growth.…”

“…Sharia bonds or sukuk are longterm securities based on Sharia principles. Sukuk is divided into two types: corporate sukuk, sukuk issued by companies based on Sharia principles, and government sukuk, better known as government Islamic securities (SBSN) (Zusryn et al, 2019). Based on Figure 1, the trend of emission and issuance of sukuk is always in line and continues to increase.…”

“…An increase in the money supply in society will make people choose to invest their money to maintain its real value, which will have a positive impact on the Islamic capital market (Mohamed et al, 2015). The movement of the unemployment rate causes inflationary turmoil because it affects people's purchasing power, so when the unemployment rate increases, people will withdraw their investments into real form (Zusryn et al, 2019). The world oil price is one of the macroeconomic indicators that is often discussed because its price movement can affect the national economy of each country, which in turn affects the rate of economic growth and has a direct impact on the Islamic capital market regarding changes in public investment behavior (Fahmi, 2015).…”

“…Research from Pramidiyanti & Indrawati (2019) from the 2002-2018 research period, with similarities to the variables of economic growth, inflation, and money supply, data analysis techniques using multiple linear regression. Research Zusryn et al, (2019) with the year 2013-2016 research period, the equation of the research variables is economic growth, inflation, and world oil prices, data analysis techniques using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Research Masitoh & Fajri (2020) in the 2015-2018 research period, with the equation of the research variables inflation and money supply, data analysis techniques using multiple linear regression.…”

“…Furthermore, the variable money supply research findings of Ardiansyah & Lubis (2017); Masitoh & Fajri (2020); Munir & Rosyidah (2021); Pramidiyanti & Indrawati (2019) explained that the money supply affects the growth of sharia bonds, in contrast to the research findings of Mulyadi et al, (2022) explained that the money supply does not affect the growth of corporate sukuk growth. Furthermore, the world oil price variable as a result of research by Zusryn et al, (2019) stated that world oil prices positively affect the growth of Islamic bonds, different results from Ardiansyah & Lubis (2017) that world oil prices harm corporate sukuk. Due to the inconsistency in the results of some of the previous studies, the researcher considered that it was necessary to redo research related to this topic with the innovations used in the study.…”