Pension reform with variable retirement age: a simulation analysis for Germany

Fehr, Hans; Kallweit, Manuel; Kindermann, Fabian

doi:10.1017/s1474747211000643

Cited by 48 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Some studies found that retirement delay offers a little help in relieving pension payment pressure. For example, by applying a general equilibrium model, Fehr et al [10] examined the impact of an increased normal retirement age on Germany's pension scheme. They concluded that delaying retirement by 9 to 12 months, would achieve a 1.5% decrease in the contribution rate.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Wang

Huang

2019

Sustainability

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Population aging is creating serious challenges for the sustainability of China’s pension system. To mitigate the adverse impact of the demographic shift, China has recently introduced fertility and retirement policy reforms. The research presented in this paper primarily evaluates the impacts of recent reforms on the financial sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Plan (UEPP). By using the Leslie matrix and actuarial models, the financial sustainability of the UEPP from 2019 to 2070 is projected and evaluated under a set of assumed policy reform scenarios. The results indicate that an imbalance in the pension fund would occur in the early 2020s and then expand under existing policies. Fertility adjustment, retirement delay, or combination reforms would not fundamentally solve this financial crisis in the long term. When 100% of couples have a second child and the retirement age is increased to 65, the current and accumulated pension deficits would drop by 50.05–67.56% and 35.88–54.23% between 2040 and 2070, respectively. Supplementary policy measures should be designed to encourage childbearing and retirement delay, including family support policies and top-designed pension system reform policies.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Wang

Huang

2019

Sustainability

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“…Hirte (2002) introduced optimal retirement in an OLG model. Such behaviour is also included in the analyses of stylized pension reforms in Eisensee (2006), Fehr et al (2012) and Imrohoroglu and Kitao (2012), as well as in the studies of Spanish pension reform in Díaz-Giménez and Díaz-Saavedra (2009) and Sánchez Martín (2010). Imrohoroglu and Kitao (2012) introduce both optimal retirement and benefit claiming in a dynamic stochastic OLG-CGE model of the US economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fiscal effects of the Norwegian pension reform – A micro–macro assessment

Fredriksen¹,

Holmøy²,

Strøm³

et al. 2017

Journal of Pension Economics and Finance

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The main goal of the Norwegian pension reform of 2011 is to improve long run fiscal sustainability, not least through stronger labour supply incentives. We assess to what extent the reform is likely to live up to these intentions. To this end we combine a dynamic microsimulation model, which includes a complete description of the Norwegian population and the pension system, with CGE-modelling of the effects on all government revenues and expenditures. We find that the reform is likely to make a great fiscal impact in the long run, and higher employment plays an important role in this respect.

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“…[13] believes that pension system reforms are essential to solving the aging problem, e.g., delaying retirement and increasing the fertility rate and the contribution rate. Delayed retirement is generally accepted to enhance a pension system's sustainability: see [14][15][16]. In addition, on the basis of an endogenous fertility model, ref.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?

Liao

Pamučar

2020

Sustainability

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The sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS) has been challenged by the ageing of the population and the decline in economic growth. This article establishes a Markov model for CBPS to examine whether the reforms, including ending the one-child policy and raising retirement the age, will shrink the negative income–expenditure gap. We find that the negative income–expenditure gap will destroy CBPS in the future in the absence of fiscal transfer or reform. Ending the one-child policy will increase the number of contributors and then reduce the gap in the short term but will worsen the gap in the long term. Raising the retirement age will have several positive effects overall while increasing expenditures in certain periods. The contributions of this article are describing CBPS in detail and establishing a precise model to analyze the effectiveness of reforms.

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Pension reform with variable retirement age: a simulation analysis for Germany

Cited by 48 publications

References 34 publications

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

Fiscal effects of the Norwegian pension reform – A micro–macro assessment

Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?

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