Perceived consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and childbearing intentions in Poland

Abstract

Objective: We aim to investigate how the perceived consequences of COVID-19 affect people's childbearing intentions in Poland.
 Background: With the pandemic having an impact on virtually all spheres of people's lives, some evidence already exists that it will lead to fertility postponement, as people are reluctant to make their reproductive choices in such uncertain times.
 Method: We analyse a nationally representative sample of 1000 respondents aged 18-49. In the sample, 234 respondents declared that they had intended to have a child before the outbreak of the pandemic and about 20% of them stated having postponed or foregone their intention because of COVID-19. We perform logistic regression analyses to verify which perceived consequences of the pandemic are most decisive for this choice. We supplement our analyses with insights from qualitative, open-ended question on the effects of the pandemic.
 Results: We find that people’s decision to postpone childbearing is related to respondents' perceived lower sense of financial security and worse mental well-being in the pandemic. In the model, where both factors are included, only mental well-being remains significant. Qualitative analyses point to several other factors important to fertility decisions in the pandemic, e.g., women’s fear of lonely childbirth.
 Conclusion: People’s decision to postpone childbearing because of COVID-19 is mostly related to pandemic-induced financial insecurity and this effect seems to be mediated by the psychological reaction to the situation.

Covid -19 and fertility in Serbia: Rough pandemic impact assessment

“…So far, during the COVID-19 pandemic, child mortality has been negligible, removing one of the main drivers of the fertility rebounds observed in the combined mortality-fertility crises of the Malthusian era (Aassve et al, 2020). Such claim has been confirmed by numerous studies, all stressing that many people have revisited their fertility plans and abandoned or, more often, postponed their reproductive intentions (Luppi et al, 2020;Lindberg et al, 2020;Malicka et al, 2021) due to increased financial insecurity, health concerns or household duties during the pandemic, with the financial situation and mental well-being as the most important. In Serbia, as in high income countries where uncertainty plays a major role in decisions about parenthood, the overall impact of pandemic will certainly be negative, but not as negative as BBE methodology predicts and consequently it is also likely that there won't be a baby boom at all.…”

“…In general, epidemics manifest a common pattern regarding impact on fertility: a steep decline in birth rates followed by gradual increases, and then followed by a baby boom. Past evidences on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the outbreaks of infectious diseases, show that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times (Sobotka et al, 2021;Malicka et al, 2021;Aassve, 2020). Different researches around the globe hinted towards the baby bust in highly, and the baby boom in less developed countries (Aassve et al, 2020;Ullah et al, 2020;UNFPA, 2021).…”

“…Serbia will not be an exception. Different studies indicate that fertility plans have been negatively revised in many highly developed countries (Luppi et al, 2020;Lindberg et al, 2020;UNFPA, 2021;Berger, 2021;Malicka et al, 2021). Some authors expect that after an initial reduction, it is likely that birth rates will rise again due to the mortality replacement and hoarding effects.…”

Childbearing desires before and after the Covid-19 outbreak in Australia: Who changed their attitudes toward having a first or additional child?

“…The first type of data are surveys conducted during the pandemic that include a retrospective section asking people directly if they had changed their fertility plans as a result of Covid-19. This strategy has been used in studies in Australia (Qu 2021), Canada (Fostik and Galbraith 2021), Italy (Micelli, et al 2020;Guetto, Bazzani, and Vignoli 2022), Poland (Malicka, Mynarska, and Świderska 2021;Sienicka et al 2021), the United States (Lindberg et al 2020), United Kingdom (Raybould, Mynarska, and Sear 2021) as well as a cross-national study comparing Italy, Germany, France, Spain and the United Kingdom (Luppi, Arpino, and Rosina 2020). The types of questions which are asked varies, but usually the surveys include a question asking people if the timing of their plans has changed (e.g.…”

“…However, so far, no empirical study has examined this possibility using pre-event and matched comparison group designs. Previous quantitative evidence is limited to cross-sectional or longitudinal studies with no counterfactual (Lindberg et al 2020;Luppi, Arpino and Rosina 2020;Fostik and Galbraith 2021;Malicka, Mynarska and Świderska 2021). As such, they cannot establish a causal effect nor quantify the amount of change that is due to the pandemic per se.…”