Perceived momentum influences responsibility judgments.

Parker, Jeffrey R.; Paul, Iman; Reinholtz, Nicholas

doi:10.1037/xge0000653

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…For example, when presented with a positive trend in the price of a stock, people often expect the price of that stock to continue increasing in the near future, and when presented with a negative trend in the price of a stock, they expect the price of that stock to continue decreasing (Duclos, 2015). Similar findings have been replicated in other domains, such as in predictions about the value of real estate (Simon, 2002), product sales (Bonney et al, 2020), sports results (Gilovich et al, 1985;Markman & Guenther, 2007;Parker et al, 2020), and weather forecasts and product performance (Maglio & Polman, 2016). These effects are instances of a broader phenomenon called the momentum effect.…”

Section: Trends and Psychological Momentummentioning

confidence: 64%

Acceleration neglect in trend extrapolations.

Ostinelli,

Luna

2024

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

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Many decisions rely on intuitive predictions based on time series data showing a trend. For instance, the current upward trend in global temperatures might lead to specific predictions about the extent to which global temperatures will rise in the future, and these predictions might be used to inform judgments about the urgency with which climate change must be addressed. However, those predictions often need to be revised to incorporate the effects of unexpected events that might accelerate a trend (i.e., increase its rate of change), such as an unanticipated increase in CO 2 emissions, or decelerate a trend (i.e., decrease its rate of change), such as an unanticipated reduction in CO 2 emissions. In this work, we uncover a new cognitive bias by which people neglect how much a trend can accelerate (vs. decelerate) due to unexpected events. We explain this bias in terms of momentum theory and a naive understanding of physics. These findings have important implications for businesses and policymakers seeking to communicate information about topics such as climate change, stock market prices, or disease prevention. Public Significance StatementWe document an asymmetry in how unexpected events are incorporated into trend extrapolations. People predict smaller trend accelerations (i.e., increases in the rate of change of a trend) after being informed of an event that acts in the same direction as a trend than trend decelerations (i.e., decreases in the rate of change of a trend) after being informed of an event that opposes the direction of the trend. This asymmetry affects people's expectations about the development of trends in various domains, including average global temperatures, stock and housing prices, and the spread of diseases.

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Section: Trends and Psychological Momentummentioning

confidence: 64%

Acceleration neglect in trend extrapolations.

Ostinelli,

Luna

2024

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

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“…Other accounts have linked responsibility judgments to people's beliefs about how much a given event changed the probability of the outcome happening (Brewer, 1977;Fincham & Jaspars, 1983;Parker, Paul, & Reinholtz, 2020;Spellman, 1997). Accordingly, responsibility increases with the perceived likelihood that the action brings about the outcome.…”

Section: Responsibility and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement

Wu,

Gerstenberg

2024

Cognition

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“…one vote or a helping hand), the extent to which their vote was critical and pivotal affects how responsible they are perceived. Some other accounts have linked responsibility judgments to people's beliefs about how much a given event changed the probability of the outcome happening (Brewer, 1977;Fincham & Jaspars, 1983;Parker, Paul, & Reinholtz, 2020;Spellman, 1997). Accordingly, responsibility increases with the perceived likelihood that the outcome would happen as a consequence of the action.…”

Section: Responsibility and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement

2023

Preprint

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How do people hold others responsible? Responsibility judgments are affected not only by what actually happened, but also by what could have happened if things had turned out differently. Here, we look at how replaceability -- the ease with which a person could have been replaced by someone else -- affects responsibility. We develop the counterfactual replacement model which runs simulations of alternative scenarios to determine the probability that the outcome would have been different if the person of interest had been replaced. The model predicts that a person is held more responsible when it would have been more difficult to replace them. To test the model's predictions, we design a paradigm that quantitatively varies replaceability by manipulating the number of replacements as well as the probability with which each replacement would have been available. Across three experiments featuring increasingly complex scenarios, we show that the model explains participants' responsibility judgments well in both social and physical settings, and better than alternative models that rely only on features of what actually happened.

show abstract

Perceived momentum influences responsibility judgments.

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Acceleration neglect in trend extrapolations.

Acceleration neglect in trend extrapolations.

If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement

If not me, then who? Responsibility and replacement

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