Perception and Comprehension of the Extended Forecast Graphic: A Survey of Broadcast Meteorologists and the Public

Abstract

There have been multiple efforts in recent years to simplify visual weather forecast products, with the goal of more efficient risk communication for the general public. Many meteorological forecast products, such as the cone of uncertainty, storm surge graphics, warning polygons, and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks, have created varying levels of public confusion resulting in revisions, modifications, and improvements. However, the perception and comprehension of private weather graphics produced by television stations has been largely overlooked in peer-reviewed research. The goal of this study is to explore how the extended forecast graphic, more commonly known as the 7, 10 day, etc., is utilized by broadcasters and understood by the public. Data were gathered from surveys with the general public and also from broadcast meteorologists. Results suggest this graphic is a source of confusion and highlights a disconnect between the meteorologists producing the graphic and the content prioritized by their audiences. Specifically, timing and intensity of any precipitation or adverse weather events are the two most important variables to consider from the viewpoint of the public. These variables are generally absent from the extended forecast graphic, thus forcing the public to draw their own conclusions, which may differ from what the meteorologist intends to convey. Other results suggest the placement of forecast high and low temperatures, use of probability of precipitation, icon inconsistency, and length of time the graphic is shown also contribute to public confusion and misunderstanding.

Weather Forecast Semiotics: Public Interpretation of Common Weather Icons

“…1). The 11 icons illustrate daytime weather conditions because daytime icons are more commonly used on weather graphics like the extended forecast graphic (Reed andSenkbeil 2020, 2021). These icons were chosen because the weather conditions illustrated by them represent a variety of common weather conditions, ranging from completely sunny to a dark gray cloud with rain underneath.…”

“…The preponderance of previous research addressing the messaging of weather through the use of images or graphics focuses on the use of maps and colors (Cappucci 2020;Williams et al 2020;Bryant et al 2014), as well as the presentation of radar images (Saunders et al 2018). Other research focuses on the language used by BMs (Williams et al 2020), their use of gestures (Sherman-Morris and Lea 2016), and their audience's ability to comprehend the extended forecast graphic (Reed andSenkbeil 2021, 2020;Kahl and Horwitz 2003), which is increasingly being used in mobile apps (Phan et al 2018). Phan et al (2018) examined how college students use daily weather app information on mobile devices.…”

“…A recent, but seminal, publication by Williams and Eosco (2021) on message consistency within the weather enterprise emphasized the need to work toward minimizing unnecessary conflicting information within the context of a weather message. Because weather icons used by BMs are commonly presented alongside a qualitative weather phrase and a PoP on graphics (National Research Council 2006), particularly the extended forecast graphic (Reed andSenkbeil 2021, 2020), this study was designed generate data that will allow practitioners, particularly BMs, to critically examine whether the icons they use emphasize, complement, or contradict the weather phrases and PoPs the icons are routinely shown alongside. Generating these data will illuminate for BMs any disparities between how they use and interpret the combination of icons, weather phrases, and PoPs versus how members of the public interpret those same combinations.…”