Objectives
We seek to identify predictors of 30-day mortality after balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV).
Background
To date, there is no validated method of predicting patient outcomes after percutaneous aortic valve interventions.
Methods
Data for consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis who underwent BAV at the Mount Sinai Medical Center from January 2001 to July 2007 were retrospectively reviewed. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify significant predictors of 30-day mortality and the resultant model was compared to the EuroSCORE using Akaike's Information Criterion and area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC).
Results
The analysis included 281 patients (age 83 ± 9 yrs, 61% women, aortic valve area: 0.64 ± 0.2 cm2), 36 (12.8%) of whom died within 30 days of BAV. Identified risk factors for 30-day mortality, critical status, renal dysfunction, right atrial pressure, and cardiac output, we used to construct the CRRAC the AV risk score. Thirty-day survival was 72% in the highest tertile versus 94% in the lower two tertiles of the score. Compared to the additive and logistic EuroSCORE, the risk score demonstrated superior discrimination (AUC = 0.75 vs. 0.60 and 0.63, respectively).
Conclusions
We derived a risk score, the CRRAC the AV score, that identifies patients at high-risk of 30-day mortality after BAV. Validation of the developed risk prediction score, the CRRAC the AV score, is needed in other cohorts of post-BAV patients and potentially in patients undergoing other catheter-based valve interventions.