Two treatments are accepted for patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma Յ5 cm in size and with preserved hepatic function: (1) liver resection, which can be performed without delay but has a high recurrence rate, and (2) liver transplantation, which has a better long-term survival, but is not easily available because grafts are scarce. A third possibility is to offer liver resection first and liver transplantation for tumor recurrence or deteriorating liver function (''salvage'' transplantation). We investigated the implications of such a strategy with a Markov-based decision analytic model. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common tumors worldwide, and its incidence is increasing in the western world because of the epidemics of the hepatitis C virus. 1 In patients aged less than 65 years, 2 therapies are currently accepted for early HCC (Յ5 cm): partial hepatectomy (PH) and orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). 2,3 Although studies comparing the 2 treatments are retrospective and concern patients with disparate tumor characteristics and liver function, 4-6 it is agreed that OLT is preferable to partial hepatectomy in patients with hepatic insufficiency and in patients with more than 1 tumor, in whom the results of liver resection are poor.Patients with single tumors and preserved liver function present a therapeutic dilemma. Partial hepatectomy can cure the tumor immediately, with low mortality. The underlying cirrhosis, however, is responsible for a high recurrence rate, and the patient is exposed to the long-term complications of portal hypertension and hepatocellular failure. 7 OLT, by treating both the tumor and the cirrhosis, offers a better long-term survival. The tumor, however, can outgrow the criteria accepted for transplantation while waiting for donor organs, affecting the ultimate outcome as shown in a previous analysis. 2 For patients with a single resectable HCC, an alternative strategy to either partial hepatectomy or OLT would be to offer resection first and transplantation if the tumor recurs or if the liver function deteriorates (salvage OLT). Before such a strategy can be tested in a prospective controlled trial, the present study examines its implications in terms of patient outcome, graft use, and costs, using a decisional analysis model based on the data available in the literature.
PATIENTS AND METHODS
Decision Analytic ModelWe investigated the impact of 2 options: (1) primary liver transplantation and (2) partial hepatectomy followed by salvage liver transplantation (Fig. 1A) in patients with compensated cirrhosis and solitary HCC Յ5 cm in diameter, with a Markov simulation (Decision Maker 7