Perfecting of mathematical tools for forecasting the country development vectors on the basis of economic and demographic parameters system analysis

Abstract

Under the conditions of activeglobe community activitiesaimed atsolving systemic problems in socioeconomic development the scientific and practical interest to the study of demo-economic processes applying mathematical tools increases objectively. This issue is especially actual for Ukraine, which hadeconomic conditions similar to many EU countriec, but got unsatisfactory results in the market economy functioning. Therefore, it is the task of paramount importance to establish cause-effect relationships between key demo-economic indicators of Ukraine and a country with a set of similar conditions of development (Poland) to adjust the strategic goals of sustainable development of Ukraine towards the meeting of EU demographic standards.The results of the analysis of the demo-economic situation in Ukraine and Poland in 2000-2017 revealed opposite trends in development. The human factor proved to be a strong component of development for both countries. The methodical approach to the assessment of the regional level of human development, based on the improvement of the mathematical tools for forecasting the development vectors of the country, is proposed. It is based on the grouping of country regions according to certain demographic parameters. Common and peculiarissues of human development indifferent regions of Ukraine are systematized upon the basis of clusterization. The established regularities of demo-economic development of entire Ukraine and regional features, the levers of state regulation of human potential formation of Poland were taken into account and laid as the basis of scientific and practical recommendations for adjusting the Strategy of Sustainable Development of Ukraine.