In
this study, we present a holistic analysis of the stock and
emissions of poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in California
carpet in 2000–2030. Our high estimate is that, in 2017, the
total PFAS accumulated in in-use carpet stock and landfilled carpet
are ∼60 and ∼120 tonnes, respectively, and the resultant
PFAS emissions are ∼800 and ∼100 kg, respectively. Among
the three subclasses (side-chain polymers, PFAA, and nonpolymeric
precursors), side-chain polymers dominate the in-use stock and landfill
accumulation, while nonpolymeric precursors dominate the resultant
emissions. Our low estimate is typically 8–15% of the high
estimate and follows similar trends and subclass breakdowns as the
high estimate. California’s new Carpet Stewardship Regulations
(24% recycling of end-of-life carpet) will reduce the landfilled PFAS
by 6% (7 tonnes) at the cost of increasing the in-use stock by 2%
(2 tonnes) in 2030. Aggressive PFAS phase-out by carpet manufacturers
(i.e., reduce PFAS use by 15% annually starting 2020) could reduce
the in-use PFAS stock by 50% by 2030, but its impact on the total
landfilled PFAS is limited. The shift toward short-chain PFAS will
also significantly reduce the in-use stock of long-chain PFAS in carpet
by 2030 (only 25% of the total PFAS will be long-chain). Among the
data gaps identified, a key one is the current area-based PFAS emission
reporting (i.e., g PFAS emitted/area carpet/time), which leads to
the counterintuitive result that reducing the PFAS use in carpet production
has no impact on the PFAS emissions from in-use stock and landfills.
Future technical studies should either confirm this or consider a
mass-based unit (e.g., g PFAS emitted/g PFAS used/time) for better
integration into regional substance flow analysis. Other noticeable
data gaps include the lack of time-series data on emissions from the
in-use stock and on leaching of side-chain polymers from landfills.