Performance comparison of energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands based on a mixed-integer linear model

Abstract

In designing energy supply systems, several alternatives for design specifications are proposed, and their performances are evaluated and compared. In this paper, a method of comparing performances of two energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands is proposed based on a mixed-integer linear model. Uncertain energy demands are expressed by intervals. The minimum and maximum, and consequently their interval of the difference in the value of a performance criterion are evaluated for all the possible energy demands within their intervals. An optimization problem for this evaluation is formulated as a minimax mixed-integer linear programming one with integer and continuous operation variables. The problem is solved by evaluating upper and lower bounds for the optimal value of the difference in the value of the performance criterion repeatedly. In a case study, the minimum and maximum of the reduction in the annual total cost of a cogeneration system in comparison with a conventional energy 2 supply system are evaluated, and the corresponding energy demands and operational strategies are identified. The influence of the uncertainty in energy demands on these results is also examined. Through the case study, the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method are clarified.

Design of Biomass Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Systems based on Economic Risk using Minimax Regret Criterion

“…For example, if the design selected have much higher power capacity than the power demand, the biomass CHP plant will be running on low capacity which will generate lower gross profit than its potential gross profit. MRC approach is commonly used in business and finance model to make decision that minimises the possible maximum regret [13,18]. Generic tables used for MRC approach are shown in Table 2 Where i n is the levels of factor 1, j n is the levels of factor 2 and P ij as stated in the table are the gross profit of the system.…”

“…Recent studies by Yokoyama [17,18] used Minimax Regret Criterion (MRC) approach to evaluate economic risk and subsequently providing optimal design of energy supply system. However, Yokoyama's study only focuses on conventional energy supply system.…”

Robust optimal design of energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands based on a mixed-integer linear model

“…Therefore, it is strongly required to develop a robust optimal design method of energy supply systems based on a mixed-integer linear model, so that it can treat not only continuous but also discrete variables. At the first step for this challenge, the authors have proposed a method of comparing performances of two energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands based on a mixed-integer linear model for constituent equipment [27]. In this paper, a robust optimal design method of energy supply systems under uncertain energy demands is proposed using a mixed-integer linear model.…”