Performance Evaluation of High-Resolution Simulations with COSMO over South Italy

Abstract

This study aims to assess the capabilities of a weather forecasting system based on simulations performed with the COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modeling) model over a domain located in southern Italy, employing a spatial resolution of about 1 km, driven by ECMWF-IFS global data. The model is run daily at the Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), and the evaluation was performed from January to May 2018 using a combination of observational data, specifically data provided by the CIRA meteorological station, wind profiler and ceilometer. Moreover, data provided by radio sounding located at Pratica di Mare and ground stations at two other locations were also used. A model configuration optimized through a tuning procedure over the domain considered was employed, while the evaluation was performed by comparing daily values of several variables and using standard monitoring indices. The results highlight that the model has good capability in reproducing daily values of temperature, while precipitation intensity is generally underestimated, even if rain patterns are well captured (alternating rainy and dry days). Good agreement is also reported for wind speed, especially at 100 and 500 m altitude. Regarding radio sounding data, the COSMO model configuration selected can reproduce the vertical profile of temperature and dew point, with the exception of inversion points. Evaluation against ceilometer data is achieved in terms of cloud height and planetary boundary layer height.

Analysis of Expected Climate Extreme Variability with Regional Climate Simulations over Napoli Capodichino Airport: A Contribution to a Climate Risk Assessment Framework

“…Extreme meteorological events frequently affect this thunderstorm sensitive area, especially related to very intense precipitation and strong winds. They are likely associated with the increased Mediterranean temperature, in particular from the Tyrrhenian Sea, where storm cells are generated [18].…”

“…However, it must be pointed out that the current values of the indicators provided by the model for the individual years cannot be used in a deterministic way, since the RCM is forced by a Global Model, and not by Reanalysis. In any case, it is known that COSMO-CLM has difficulties in localizing rain events: in fact, strong precipitation is often simulated in areas away from the site where the event really takes place, even at very high resolution (1 km) [18], and, of course, the situation gets worse when a resolution of approximately 8 km is employed. Moreover, it is worth noting that such discrepancies could also be due to inaccuracies of the observational dataset.…”

An Interannual Drought Feedback Loop Affects the Surface Energy Balance and Cloud Properties

“…CEILING is the height at which most of the sky is covered with clouds, which can also be observed by ceilometers. COSMO has been evaluated against such observations reaching high values of reproducibility (Bucchignani & Mercogliano, 2021). CEILING is a measure for cloud height both in convective and high‐pressure synoptic situations, where cirrus clouds are formed.…”

A Wind Field Reconstruction from Numerical Weather Prediction Data Based on a Meteo Particle Model

“…The original coordinate values in have been converted into meters, assuming the bottom-left point of the subgri origin (0,0). The capabilities of the COSMO model in simulating the main atmospheric variables over this domain have already been tested against the data provided by the CIRA weather instrumentation and other data, and the results were presented in [25]. In particular, the wind values were validated against the data provided by the wind profiler installed at CIRA (owned by ARPAC-Environmental Protection Agency of Campania Region), revealing the good model performance and suggesting the great potential of the model to support forecasts for drone flights.…”