Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models

Watling, James I.; Brandt, Laura A.; Bucklin, David N.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Speroterra, Carolina

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.03.017

Cited by 85 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…To properly interpret the results of SDMs, the uncertainties involved should be considered. The particular SDM used may actually contribute most to the uncertainty of the model output (Thibaud et al , ; Watling et al , ). However, there are other sources of uncertainty such as species presence data and their rarefaction and potential autocorrelations that can affect model prediction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus

et al. 2019

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Myrtle rust (caused by Austropuccinia psidii) affects more than 500 known host species in the Myrtaceae family. Three different modelling approaches (CLIMEX, MaxEnt and Multi‐Model Framework) were used to project the habitat suitability for myrtle rust at both global and local scales. Current data on the global occurrence of myrtle rust were collected from online literature and expert solicitation. Long‐term averages of climate data (1960–1990) were sourced from WorldClim and CliMond websites. Recent reports of myrtle rust in New Zealand were used for validation of model outputs but not in model training and testing. The model outputs were combined into a consensus model to identify localities projected to be suitable for myrtle rust according to two or three models (hotspots). In addition to the locations where the pathogen is currently present, all models successfully projected independent occurrence data in New Zealand suitable for establishment of the pathogen. Climate suitability for the pathogen was primarily related to temperature followed by rainfall in MaxEnt and the CLIMEX model. The results confirmed the optimum temperature range of this pathogen in the literature (15–25 °C). Additional analysis of the precipitation variables indicated that excessive rain (more than 2000 mm in warmest quarter of the year) combined with high temperatures (>30 °C) constrain pathogen establishment. The results of the current study can be useful for countries such as New Zealand, China, South Africa and Singapore where the pathogen has not fully spread or established.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus

et al. 2019

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“…Uncertainty on the estimation of future species ranges may be due to the use of different ENM algorithms and Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Circulation Models—AOGCMs—(Watling et al, ). As many AOGCMs are available for the region and in order to avoid their subjective selection, we use an adaptation of the Casajus et al () approach.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

Velazco

Villalobos

Galvão

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

143

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Aim The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species’ ranges outside PAs. Results We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.

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“…In this context, many authors have introduced stochastic population models to investigate the effect of environmental variability and perturbation [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. Here, we explore uncertainties present in the logistic model, which is commonly applied in the studies of human, plants and bacterial populations, as well as to evaluate economic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

On the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the environmental carrying capacity and initial population density

Dorini

Cecconello

Dorini

2016

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation

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Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models

Cited by 85 publications

References 62 publications

Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus

Projecting the suitability of global and local habitats for myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) using model consensus

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

On the logistic equation subject to uncertainties in the environmental carrying capacity and initial population density

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