Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America

Carril, Andrea F.; Menéndez, Claudio G.; Remedio, Armelle Reca; Robledo, Federico Ariel; Sörensson, Anna A.; Tencer, Bárbara; Boulanger, Jean‐Louis; Castro, Manuel de; Jacob, Daniela; Treut, Hervé Le; Li, L.Z.X.; Penalba, Olga Clorinda; Pfeifer, Susanne; Rusticucci, Matilde; Salio, Paola; Samuelsson, Patrick; Sánchez, Enrique; Zaninelli, Pablo G.

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1573-z

Cited by 56 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 91 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In agreement with Carril et al (2012), the skill of the models in reproducing mean climate conditions over northern and southern Amazonia is weak and the uncertainty is high. Figure 2 suggests that this is not necessarily true for the interannual variability.…”

Section: Rca3supporting

confidence: 58%

“…There is a growing motivation for downscaling of the simulations and projections provided by global models using regional climate model (Menéndez et al 2010a, b;Marengo et al 2011b;Carril et al 2012;Solman et al 2013). Previous experiences of downscaling in Central and South America have been performed using various regional models (Eta, MM5, RegCM3, HadRM3, RCA).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A coordinated experiment using four regional models forced with the ERA-40 reanalysis for 1991-2000 (Carril et al 2012) was done as part of the CLARIS Project, the predecessor of CLARIS-LPB. In other regions of the world, dynamical downscaling has been available for Europe from the PRUDENCE (prudence.dmi.dk) and ENSEMBLES (ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) projects (Jacob et al 2007;Boberg et al 2010); over North America, from the NARCCAP Program www.narccap.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All models were run with horizontal resolution of about 50 km over South America but with slightly varying vertical resolution. Solman et al (2013) and Carril et al (2012) provide details of the regional models used in the experiment, and Table 1 shows details of the land surface parameterizations from each model. This information is relevant to the discussion of variations of the energy balance related to rainfall and temperature anomalies during the meteorological drought in the Amazon region.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

et al. 2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF, others simulated positive rainfall departures over central Amazonia. The simulated circulation patterns indicate a weaker northeasterly flow from the tropical North Atlantic into Amazonia, and reduced flows from southern Amazonia into the La Plata basin in DJF, which is consistent with observations. In general, we can say that in some degree the regional models are able to capture the response to the forcing from the tropical Atlantic during the drought of 2005 in Amazonia. Moreover, extreme climatic conditions in response to anomalous low-level circulation features are also well captured, since the boundary conditions come from reanalysis and the models are largely constrained by the information provided at the boundaries. The analysis of the 2005 drought suggests that when the forcing leading to extreme anomalous conditions is associated with both local and non-local mechanisms (soil moisture feedbacks and remote SST anomalies, respectively) the models are not fully capable of representing these feedbacks and hence, the associated anomalies. The reason may be a deficient reproduction of the land-atmosphere interactions.

show abstract

Section: Rca3supporting

confidence: 58%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

et al. 2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Coordinated downscaled multi-year simulations and climate change projections are becoming available for South America in the CLARIS and CLARIS LPB projects framework , Sö -rensson et al 2010, Carril et al 2012, Sánchez et al 2015. The CLARIS ensemble of RCMs is able to reproduce the major regional characteristics of the ob served mean climate, and perform better in comparison to individual ensemble members ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological cycle, temperature, and land surface-atmosphere interaction in the La Plata Basin during summer: response to climate change

Menéndez¹,

Zaninelli²,

Carril³

et al. 2016

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The austral summer response (2071−2100 with respect to 1981−2010) in terms of precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration was analyzed over South America, with emphasis on the La Plata Basin (LPB), using an ensemble of regional climate models. Seasonal mean precipitation increased over the southern LPB, consistent with CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. However, the region of wetting (in the sense of precipitation minus evapotranspiration) over the LPB shifts to the north and northwest, compared to the region of increased precipitation. The LPB is characterized as the South American region with the largest gradient in temperature change (maximum warming north of the LPB and lowest temperature rise near the Rio de la Plata). The interannual variability of evapotranspiration has a geographic distribution similar to that of temperature variability, with a maximum in northern Argentina, suggesting that the 2 variables are interrelated. In turn, in the current climate, the southern LPB is a transition zone in which the evapotranspiration regime depends on the availability of soil water. The model ensemble also points to a similar geographical distribution of limitation regimes (energy-vs. soil moisture-limited evapotranspiration) for present-day and future conditions over South America. In particular, the evapotranspiration regime is projected to continue to be soil moisture-limited over the LPB. Nevertheless, the coupling between land and temperature decreases in areas with increasing soil water availability. In the southern LPB, interannual variability in temperature and evapotranspiration tend to decrease, while rainfall variability exhibits the opposite behavior.KEY WORDS: Land−temperature coupling · Temperature variability · Evapotranspiration regimes · Ensemble of regional climate models · South America Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherContribution to

show abstract

Regional winter climate of the southern central Andes: Assessing the performance of ERA‐Interim for climate studies

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In order to determine the feasibility of using reanalysis (ERA-Interim) for climate studies over the southern central Andes in South America, we have compared the most recent version of different data sets available to the community. The data sets include gridded in situ observations: Climate Research Unit (CRU), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), and University of Delaware; merged satellite and in situ data: Global Precipitation Climatology Project; and satellite estimates: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. We pay particular attention to the region between 30°and 37°S and also the period 1970-1976 to evaluate the data sets. This is the period of maximum availability of meteorological stations in the region. Whereas all data sets provide an adequate representation of mean winter, GPCC provides the best for winter precipitation due to the large number of stations included in gridding. The CRU data set has fewer observations throughout the period. Although it cannot reproduce the localized maxima in the Andes, it provides a better representation of the regional precipitation and is best suited to evaluate trends. The temperature in the region is best estimated by CRU. We evaluate the ERA-Interim reanalysis to determine potential shortcomings. The trends in the region were analyzed during the period 1979-2010, and while CRU indicates a significant decrease in winter precipitation, ERA-Interim shows virtually no significant trends. Interannual variability is well represented by ERA-Interim, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has been proven to be the principal source of year to year precipitation variability in the region, is highly correlated there.

show abstract

Performance of a multi-RCM ensemble for South Eastern South America

Cited by 56 publications

References 91 publications

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

Hydrological cycle, temperature, and land surface-atmosphere interaction in the La Plata Basin during summer: response to climate change

Regional winter climate of the southern central Andes: Assessing the performance of ERA‐Interim for climate studies

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About