Performance of an industrial source complex model: Predicting long‐term concentrations in an urban area

Kumar, Ashok; Bellam, Naveen K.; Sud, A. M.

doi:10.1002/ep.670180213

Cited by 61 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…We used different algorithms to calculate exposures from predominantly aerial-and ground-based applications (Brody et al 2002). For aerial applications, which were used for tree pests and cranberry bogs, we used local climate data, the Spray Drift Task Force AgDRIFT model (Teske et al 1997), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Industrial Source Complex Short-Term (ISCT3) air model (Kumar et al 1999; U.S. EPA 1995) to develop the following algorithm:…”

Section: ; Massachusetts Executive Office Of Environmental Affairs 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

Breast cancer risk and historical exposure to pesticides from wide-area applications assessed with GIS.

Brody

Aschengrau

McKelvey

et al. 2004

Environ Health Perspect

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Pesticides are of interest in etiologic studies of breast cancer because many mimic estrogen, a known breast cancer risk factor, or cause mammary tumors in animals, but most previous studies have been limited by using one-time tissue measurements of residues of only a few pesticides long banned in the United States. As an alternative method to assess historical exposures to banned and current-use pesticides, we used geographic information system (GIS) technology in a population-based case-control study of 1,165 women residing in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, who were diagnosed with breast cancer in 1988-1995 and 1,006 controls. We assessed exposures dating back to 1948 (when DDT was first used there) from pesticides applied for tree pests (e.g., gypsy moths), cranberry bogs, other agriculture, and mosquito control on wetlands. We found no overall pattern of association between pesticide use and breast cancer. We found modest increases in risk associated with aerial application of persistent pesticides on cranberry bogs and less persistent pesticides applied for tree pests or agriculture. Adjusted odds ratios for these exposures were 1.8 or lower, and, with a few exceptions, confidence intervals did not exclude the null. The study is limited by uncertainty about locations of home addresses (particularly before 1980) and unrecorded tree pest and mosquito control events as well as lack of information about exposures during years when women in the study lived off Cape Cod and about women with potentially important early life exposures on Cape Cod who were not included because they moved away. Mortality has not been elevated on Cape Cod. Although this suggests the logical possibility that increased incidence could be due to a higher rate of diagnoses through greater mammography use rather than to a higher underlying rate of disease, existing evidence does not support this explanation. A Massachusetts state survey in the mid-1990s showed that 88% of Cape Cod women had ever had a mammogram compared with 89% in the rest of Massachusetts, and Cape Cod women were about 6% less likely to report a mammogram within the last year (Massachusetts Department of Public Health 1997). The proportion of cases diagnosed at earlier stages (an indicator of mammography use) was lower on Cape Cod than in the rest of the state in years when incidence was most elevated (Silent Spring Institute 1998).Previous research also has shown that pesticides were applied widely on Cape Cod to support tourism, cranberry cultivation, and other agriculture (Brody et al. 2002). Forests were repeatedly sprayed for gypsy moths and other tree pests, and wetlands were sprayed for mosquito control. Other wide-area uses include golf course and rights-of-way management. Persistent organochlorine chemicals were used from the late 1940s to the mid-1970s, and less persistent compounds, including carbaryl, malathion, and carbamates, have been applied in more recent years (Brody et al. 2002). Table 1 lists pesticides applied by type of use. Maps of pesticide use areas an...

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Section: ; Massachusetts Executive Office Of Environmental Affairs 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

Breast cancer risk and historical exposure to pesticides from wide-area applications assessed with GIS.

Brody

Aschengrau

McKelvey

et al. 2004

Environ Health Perspect

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“…Three parameters below are also introduced to assess the forecast performance of air quality models (e.g. Kumar et al 1999). …”

Section: Model Evaluations Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-based threshold modeling for short-term forecast of daily maximum ozone level

Kim

2008

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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This paper proposes a simple class of threshold autoregressive model for purpose of forecasting daily maximum ozone concentrations in Southern California. Linear time series model has been widely considered in environmental modeling. However, this class of models fails to capture the nonlinearity in ozone process and the complexity of meteorological interactions with ozone. In this article, we used the threshold autoregressive models with two classes of regimes; periodic and meteorological regimes. Days in week were used for the periodic regimes and the regression tree method was used to define the regimes as a function of meteorological variables. As the reference model we used the autoregressive model with lagged ozone and various lagged meteorological variables as the covariates. The proposed models were applied to a 3-year dataset of daily maximum ozone concentrations obtained from five monitoring stations in San Bernardino County, CA and their forecast performances were evaluated using an independent year-long dataset from the same stations. The results showed that the threshold models well capture the nonlinearity in ozone process and remove the nonstationarity in model residuals. The threshold models outperformed the non-threshold autoregressive models in day-ahead forecasts. The tree-based model showed slightly better performance than the periodic threshold model.

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“…Similarly, Kumar et al [41] has used statistical tools to evaluate the prediction of lower flammability distances. Patel and Kumar [42], Kumar et al [43], and Kumar et al [44] have indicated that Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Factor of Two (Fa2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Fractional Bias (FB), and Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE) are important parameters to assess the performance of air-quality models. Here, we re-visit these parameters for the purpose of comparison with typically used ANN measures (section 4.2).…”

Section: Other Comparative Error Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an ANN Interpolation Scheme for Estimating Missing Radon Concentrations in Ohio

Akkala¹

2011

TOEBMJ

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Radon (Rn) is a chemically inert, naturally occurring radioactive gas. It is one of the main causes of lung cancer second to smoking, and accounts for about 25,000 deaths every year in the US alone according to the National Cancer Institute. In order to initiate preventive measures to reduce the deaths caused by radon inhalation, it is helpful to have radon concentration data for each locality, e.g. zip code. However, such data are not available for each and every zip code in Ohio, owing to several reasons including inapproachability. In places where data is unavailable, radon concentrations must be estimated using interpolation techniques. This paper presents a new interpolation technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for modeling and predicting radon concentrations in Ohio, US. Several ANNs were first trained and then validated using available data. From the resulting models, the model with lowest validation error was identified. Model accuracies using the proposed approach was found to be significantly better compared to conventional interpolation techniques such as Kriging and Radial Basis Functions.

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Performance of an industrial source complex model: Predicting long‐term concentrations in an urban area

Abstract: The short -t e rm and long-term versions of Industrial Source Complex Models (ISCST3 and ISCLT3) are evaluated for estimating long-term c o n c e n t rations using sulfur dioxide data from emission inve n t o ry of

Cited by 61 publications

References 4 publications

Breast cancer risk and historical exposure to pesticides from wide-area applications assessed with GIS.

Breast cancer risk and historical exposure to pesticides from wide-area applications assessed with GIS.

Tree-based threshold modeling for short-term forecast of daily maximum ozone level

Development of an ANN Interpolation Scheme for Estimating Missing Radon Concentrations in Ohio

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