Performance of European and American Societies of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Guidelines for Prediction of Choledocholithiasis in Patients with Acute Biliary Pancreatitis

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Up to one-third of patients with acute biliary pancreatitis also present with choledocholithiasis. Guidelines from the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) and the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) for investigating suspected choledocholithiasis suggest endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in patients with high-likelihood (ESGE)/high-probability (ASGE) predictors and endoscopic ultrasound in those with intermediate-likelihood (ESGE)/intermediate-probability (ASGE) predictors. Although both guidelines are similar, they are not identical. Furthermore, these algorithms were mainly developed from cohorts of patients without pancreatitis and are therefore poorly validated in a subset of patients with acute pancreatitis. We aimed to assess the performance of the ESGE and ASGE algorithms for the prediction of choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of 86 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary referral centre in the year 2020 due to acute biliary pancreatitis. Results: Choledocholithiasis was confirmed in 29/86 (33.7%) of patients (13 with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and 16 with endoscopic ultrasound). All 10/10 (100%) ESGE high-likelihood and 14/19 (73.7%) ASGE high-probability patients had choledocholithiasis. Only 19/71 (26.8%) patients with ESGE intermediate likelihood and 15/67 (22.4%) with ASGE intermediate probability had choledocholithiasis. Only 8/13 (61.5%) patients with the ASGE high-probability predictor of dilated common bile duct plus bilirubin > 68.4 µmol/mL had choledocholithiasis. Since this predictor is not considered high likelihood by ESGE, this resulted in a superior specificity of the European compared to the American guideline (100% vs. 91.2%). Following the American instead of the European guidelines would have resulted in five unnecessary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies and five unnecessary endoscopic ultrasound examinations. Conclusions: This retrospective analysis suggests that the European guidelines may perform better than the American guidelines at predicting choledocholithiasis in the setting of acute pancreatitis. This was because dilated common bile duct plus bilirubin > 68.4 µmol/mL was not a reliable predictor for persistent bile duct stones.

Development and validation of a predictive model for choledocholithiasis

“…5,6 Various prognostic scales, models, and algorithms have emerged to predict the probability of choledocholithiasis. [7][8][9][10][11][12] Our principal aim was to assess factors associated with CBD stones in patients exhibiting symptoms of gallstones, biliary pancreatitis, obstructive jaundice, or cholangitis. Our subsequent goal was to employ these identified factors to formulate and validate a predictive model for choledocholithiasis.…”