Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions

Chmielewski, Frank‐M.; Götz, Klaus-Peter

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.022

Cited by 35 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 50 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…One possible explanation is decreasing winter chilling (Cook, Wolkovich, & Parmesan, 2012;Fu, Zhao et al, 2015;Xie, Ahmed, Allen, Wilson, & Silander, 2015;Yu, Luedeling, & Xu, 2010), since insufficient chilling of buds during the winter can inhibit the genetic and physiological re-programming needed for dormancy release. The photoperiod may also limit phenological responses to temperature in some species: if buds ontogenesis starts earlier in spring, the shorter day length can slow down bud development or reduce its responsiveness to temperature (Basler & K€ orner, 2012(Basler & K€ orner, , 2014Bl€ umel & Chmielewski, 2012;Caffarra & Donnelly, 2011;Chmielewski & G€ otz, 2016). The photoperiod may also limit phenological responses to temperature in some species: if buds ontogenesis starts earlier in spring, the shorter day length can slow down bud development or reduce its responsiveness to temperature (Basler & K€ orner, 2012(Basler & K€ orner, , 2014Bl€ umel & Chmielewski, 2012;Caffarra & Donnelly, 2011;Chmielewski & G€ otz, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

Güsewell

Furrer

Gehrig

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The spring phenology of plants in temperate regions strongly responds to spring temperatures. Climate warming has caused substantial phenological advances in the past, but trends to be expected in the future are uncertain. A simple indicator is temperature sensitivity, the phenological advance statistically associated with a 1°C warmer mean temperature during the "preseason", defined as the most temperature-sensitive period preceding the phenological event. Recent analyses of phenological records have shown a decline in temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding, but underlying mechanisms were not clear. Here, we propose that climate warming can reduce temperature sensitivity simply by reducing the length of the preseason due to faster bud development during this time period, unless the entire preseason shifts forward so that its temperature does not change. We derive these predictions theoretically from the widely used "thermal time model" for bud development and test them using data for 19 phenological events recorded in 1970-2012 at 108 stations spanning a 1600 m altitudinal range in Switzerland. We consider how temperature sensitivity, preseason start, preseason length and preseason temperature change (i) with altitude, (ii) between the periods 1970-1987 and 1995-2012, which differed mainly in spring temperatures, and (iii) between two non-consecutive sets of 18 years that differed mainly in winter temperatures. On average, temperature sensitivity increased with altitude (colder climate) and was reduced in years with warmer springs, but not in years with warmer winters. These trends also varied among species. Decreasing temperature sensitivity in warmer springs was associated with a limited forward shift of preseason start, higher temperatures during the preseason and reduced preseason length, but not with reduced winter chilling. Our results imply that declining temperature sensitivity can result directly from spring warming and does not necessarily indicate altered physiological responses or stronger constraints such as reduced winter chilling.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

Güsewell

Furrer

Gehrig

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The photothermal-time approach, suggested by Blümel and Chmielewski [13], did successfully regulate the accumulation of forcing temperatures during the long ecodormancy phase and lead to much more realistic model parameters for C*, t 1 , T BF (base temperature for forcing accumulation) and F* (forcing requirement) [14,34,37]. However, some species do not show any photoperiodicity during ecodormancy [16,32].…”

Section: Relevance For Phenological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This must lead to an overestimation of C*. Surprisingly, the consideration of photoperiodicity during ecodormancy led to better model results [38,39] and mainly to more realistic dates for t 1 and C* [14,34,37]. Experimental studies showed that some late successional species (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But in temperate climates, the annual variability of air temperature frequently leads to mild spells during winter, which do not have the same effect on plant development as similar temperatures in the beginning of spring. For this reason CF-models usually show the tendency to very late dates of t 1 , in order to avoid the accumulation of higher temperatures in the beginning or mid of winter [34,37]. This must lead to an overestimation of C*.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Frequently, twigs from naturally growing trees are taken to observe their development under controlled environmental conditions, which are beneficial for its development [16,[31][32][33][34]. If twigs develop, after a certain time of forcing conditions, it can be assumed that the chilling amount, which the tree received outside, was sufficient for endodormancy release.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Identification and Timing of Dormant and Ontogenetic Phase for Sweet Cherries in Northeast Germany for Modelling Purposes

Fm¹,

Kp²

2017

J Hortic

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Spatial and temporal variability of the frost‐free season in Central Europe and its circulation background

Wypych

Ustrnul

Sulikowska

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The aim of the study was to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of last spring and first autumn frost events as well as the length of the frost‐free season (FFS) in Central Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation. Studies were conducted for the period 1951–2010 using gridded, daily minimum air temperature data obtained from the E‐OBS dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution. To assess the possible impact of air temperature variability on plants, late spring frost events and severe frost events were also examined with respect to the beginning of the thermal growing season. The role of atmospheric circulation was described using Grosswetterlagen circulation types and NAO index, and finally estimated using empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF). The results confirm a significant increase in the length of the FFS, up to 10 days per decade in the western parts of Europe. This is mostly a result of earlier occurrence of last spring frost in the west up to 5 days. The occurrence of first autumn frost shows no significant trend in most of the studied regions. The obtained spatial pattern of the trends reflects oceanic (west) and continental (east) climatic conditions of the study area. Detailed analysis of circulation types favouring the occurrence of frost in Central Europe indicates that anti‐cyclonic situations are mainly responsible. EOF analyses for the springtime confirm that the first mode, which accounts for 56% of total variance, is related to an extensive high pressure system over eastern Ukraine and Belarus, which brings an inflow of cold, continental air masses to Central Europe. The results provide a broaden information on the region climatologically important due to its transitional location, which may be relevant for investigating past and future trends in spring freeze risk for perennial crops, as changes in the frequency of these airflow patterns will result in changes in the risk of frost damage.

show abstract

Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions

Cited by 35 publications

References 50 publications

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

Identification and Timing of Dormant and Ontogenetic Phase for Sweet Cherries in Northeast Germany for Modelling Purposes

Spatial and temporal variability of the frost‐free season in Central Europe and its circulation background

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About