Performance of several clinical scoring systems as predictors of adverse outcomes in acute exposure to toxic alcohols

Abstract

Background Toxic alcohols are chemicals with common metabolic characteristics resulting in severe morbidities and mortalities. The current study aimed to assess the efficacy of six scoring systems: The Poison Severity Score (PSS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in stratifying the patients exposed to toxic alcohol based on liability of organ failure, prolonged hospital stay, and need for an antidote. Methods A seven-year retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using medical records of adult patients admitted to a poison control center. Results About 42.6% were complicated with adverse outcomes. Methanol was the worst toxic alcohol and the only cause of blindness and death. About 27.1% of methanol-exposed patients suffered from acute kidney injury, 15.3% suffered from hemodynamic instability and neurological dysfunction, and 8.5% suffered from respiratory failure. An APACHE II score above 8 was the best predictor of unfavorable outcomes, exhibiting the highest area under the curve (0.972), followed by the SOFA score. The APACHE II score was praised for being the best discriminator of an expected prolonged hospital stay. Yet, the simple scores, including RAPS and REMS, showed good performance as unfavorable outcome predictors with no significant variations to PSS, APACHE II score, and SOFA scores. Conclusion The current study concluded that though the APACHE II and SOFA scores were superior to others, the RAPS and REMS are good, simple, and effective alternatives, particularly when resources are restricted.