Performance of the CORDEX-SA Regional Climate Models in Simulating Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Future Projections over East India

Barde, Vasundhara; Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Panda, Rutuparna

doi:10.1007/s00024-022-03225-3

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Wilby et al (2009) and Weaver et al (2013) concluded that in addition to the perceived necessity of developing climate forecast tools, there is also a need to improve the assessment of social and economic vulnerability. Barde et al (2023) argue that until climate projections are less uncertain they cannot be used for decision-making, but Lemos and Rood (2010) are keen to emphasize the importance of not looking for a single perfect forecast, but "integrating projections into broader decision environments". In applying Robust Decision Making (RDM), Bhave et al (2016) suggest the use of a range of strategies to address uncertainty such as Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, which use short and long-term projections to guide immediate adaptation with alternative pathways at certain key switching points to take into account the range of uncertain future changes to climate (Haasnoot et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process to bridge the gap between policy and action

Wells,

Saggioro,

Petty

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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With climate impacts increasing in both frequency and intensity and unprecedented climate events having devastating results, the need for timely policy and action to support adaption is not in doubt. However, the gap between policy and action leaves many communities exposed to extreme events and vulnerable to loss of life and livelihoods. This is partly due to the difficulty policymakers face when confronted by climate projections with their inherent uncertainties. Competing sectoral interests and a lack of resources often compound such challenges. To address these issues, the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process (ICECCAP) encases the climate risk assessment in an enabling framework to track resource, knowledge and regulatory needs. This process was applied as part of a UNEP project to support the National Adaptation Plan in Pakistan. A range of climate storylines, describing plausible climate futures and their potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, were developed and discussed with local stakeholders, including policy makers from across levels of governance. The process allowed us to translate complex physical science into narratives that could be communicated clearly to non-technical national stakeholders, forming a basis for subsequent negotiation and decision-making at a local level to address multiple risks and respond to adaptation needs at this finer resolution. This reflects our aim, as part of the My Climate Risk network, to amalgamate bottom-up climate risk assessment with climate projection data that remains meaningful at a local scale. We show how the integration of scientific research and local expert stakeholder views can promote buy-in to adaptation planning. Grounded in a systemic and comprehensive understanding of potential impacts of climate change, this process has implications across socio-economic, environmental and governance spheres.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process to bridge the gap between policy and action

Wells,

Saggioro,

Petty

et al. 2023

Front. Clim.

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“…Apart from the above studies, many studies have been made for the SA-CORDEX domain especially for the Indian sub-continent (Maharana and Dimiri,2014; Karmacharya et al 2015; Raju PVS et al 2015; Iqbal et al 2017; Maity et al 2017; Choudhary et al 2018; Pattnayak et al 2018; Maurya et al 2018; Rana et al 2020; Singh et al 2021; Tyagi et al 2022; Ramakrishna et.al. 2022;Barde V et al 2023). proposed an evaluation framework for the better assessment of the capability of an RCM in capturing the fundamental structure of South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM), because the regional climate model (RCM) deals with only few variables which is insu cient for the validation.…”

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confidence: 99%

Numerical Simulation of the Indian Monsoon Climate using the WRF Regional Climate Model

MadhuSai,

Panda,

Sivaramakrishna

2023

Preprint

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Climate studies are essential in understanding the Earth's climate system and its dynamics. Numerical models play a significant role in these studies by simulating the behaviour of the atmosphere and providing insights into future climate scenarios. In the recent years, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has emerged as a widely used tool for studying climate on regional scales. In the present study, we simulated the mean features of the Indian summer monsoon (June through September) climate using the WRF regional climate model. The WRF model with a horizontal resolution of 25 km is driven by the Community Climate System Model version4 (CCSM4) for the period 2006-2021 which is a part of the fifth generation of Coupled Model Inter comparison Project (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0) over the South Asia Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (SA-CORDEX) domain. The model is simulated on a continuous mode throughout its annual cycle for the period of integration. But for the presentation of results, the summer monsoon months of JJAS for the period 2007 to 2021 are only analysed. The performance of the model was assessed through the study of the spatial distribution of Air temperature (2m), Winds, Pressure, Rainfall, and the Vertical Integrated Moisture flux convergence (VIMFC). The simulated parameters were compared to those in ERA5 reanalysis and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall. The performance of the WRF model was evaluated for simulating the regional scale precipitation over 5 homogenous rainfall zones of India. The WRF model accurately reproduces the Tropospheric Temperature Gradient (TTG) between the southern and northern regions. The sub-regional scale analysis of the simulated 2m temperature and precipitation for 30 meteorological subdivisions of India reveals that the WRF model performs better than the CCSM4 model. Results indicate that the model is able to capture the mean climatological features of the monsoon viz. monsoon onset, low-level Jet and the upper-level tropical easterly jet.

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Assessment of Basin‐Scale Concurrent Dry and Wet Extreme Dynamics Under Multimodel CORDEX Climate Scenarios

Swain,

Mishra,

Chatterjee

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The impact of extreme events in risk analysis depends on factors such as magnitude, duration, timing and whether the system recovers fully before the next event occurs. While previous studies have primarily examined the drivers and characteristics of individual extremes, less focus has been given to the concurrent or compounding nature of extremes across adjacent seasons. Thus, understanding the dynamics of such compound extremes, particularly dryness and wetness, is crucial. To address these concerns, a Multi Scalar Drought Index (MSDI) is formulated using precipitation and temperature data from three river basins (Brahmani, Baitarani and Cauvery) of eastern and southern India. The combinations of dryness and wetness, such as Dry‐Dry, Dry‐Wet, Wet‐Dry and Wet‐Wet, between consecutive seasons are analysed across four seasons (summer, rainy, autumn and winter). The prolonged dryness/wetness along with dry/wet year are evaluated from baseline (1979–2018) to projected COrdinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) future period (2020–2099). The spatio‐temporal variations in intra‐annual dry‐wet extremes are identified using the Mann–Kendall test. The results suggest that the eastern Indian river basins, particularly the Brahmani and Baitarani basins, experience more frequent occurrences of compounding dryness‐wetness compared to Cauvery river which is a southern Indian basin. Future scenarios indicate a trend towards dryness during the monsoon season in Brahmani and Baitarani basins, with frequent wet extremes in late autumn and winter. Abrupt transitions between dryness and wetness are prevalent during the Rainy‐Autumn and Autumn‐Winter seasons in Brahmani and Baitarani basins. The increased frequency of compound dry‐wet extremes poses significant socio‐economic risks, including reduced agricultural productivity, water management challenges and heightened vulnerability of local livelihoods dependent on consistent water availability. The results of this study provide a scientific reference for sustainable agriculture and water resource management to predict future seasonal dry and wet alternations and develop effective mitigation strategies.

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Performance of the CORDEX-SA Regional Climate Models in Simulating Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Future Projections over East India

Cited by 5 publications

References 54 publications

Using the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process to bridge the gap between policy and action

Using the Implementation Centric Evolving Climate Change Adaptation Process to bridge the gap between policy and action

Numerical Simulation of the Indian Monsoon Climate using the WRF Regional Climate Model

Assessment of Basin‐Scale Concurrent Dry and Wet Extreme Dynamics Under Multimodel CORDEX Climate Scenarios

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