Perinatal Mortality in West Germany Following Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Tests

Abstract

Using trend analysis, the author sought a possible association between perinatal mortality rates in West Germany, 1955-1993, and the fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in the years 1952-1993. The regression model used a continuously falling trend and a superimposed extra term that reflects the average strontium content in pregnant women. Mortality rates show an upward deviation that peaked in 1970. The model attributes more than 100,000 excess perinatal deaths to strontium in the fallout. The dose-response curve is curvilinear with a power of dose of 1.81 +/- 0.23. In addition, using a combined regression model, the author analyzed the two data subsets of perinatal mortality (i.e., stillbirth rate and early neonatal mortality). The strontium effect is 3.4 times greater on early infant deaths than on stillbirths. According to the prevailing wisdom, the fetus is protected against damage from ionizing radiation by a threshold dose of 50-200 mSv, but the doses from strontium in the fallout were well below 1 mSv/yr in Germany. The results reported here seem to contradict the existence of a threshold dose for perinatal mortality at low doses.

The Chernobyl Nuclear Catastrophe: Unacknowledged Health Detriment

“…Excess malformations, childhood morbidity, and genetic effects were reported from several areas of Central Europe and Turkey ( Committee Examining Radiation Risks of Internal Emitters 2004 ; ECRR 2006 ; Fairlie and Sumner 2006 ; Körblein 2006 ; Scherb 2006 ; Schmitz-Feuerhake 2006 ). These post-Chernobyl observations are consistent with those in the United Kingdom, the United States, and West Germany following the atmospheric nuclear bomb tests of the 1950s ( Körblein 2004 ; Whyte 1992 ). According to the International Commission on Radiological Protection (1991) , UNSCEAR (2000) , and other radiation authorities, teratogenic effects should not occur below a dose threshold of about 100 mSv.…”

Erratum

“…Furthermore, multiaberrant cells, characteristic for incorporated alpha emitters, were identified well beyond 100 km from Chernobyl, whereas plutonium particles were found as far away as Norway, contradicting "negligible exposure levels" beyond 100 km [ Körblein 2006;Scherb 2006;Schmitz-Feuerhake 2006). These post-Chernobyl observations are consistent with those in the United Kingdom, the United States, and West Germany following the atmospheric nuclear bomb tests of the 1950s (Körblein 2004;Whyte 1992). According to the International Commission on Radiological Protection (1991), UNSCEAR (2000), and other radiation authorities, teratogenic effects should not occur below a dose threshold of about 100 mSv.…”

Letter to the Editor

“…Grech fails to offer a possible explanation for this delayed effect of radiation exposure on sex ratios. In my study of perinatal mortality in Germany after the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests I found a similar rise and fall with a relative maximum at the beginning of the 1970 s which is associated with the calculated strontium content in pregnant women [3]. Whether this model could also explain the observed trend of sex ratios could be usefully investigated.…”