Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

Abstract

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

Oceanic events and biotic effects of the Cenomanian-Turonian anoxic event, Tarfaya Basin, Morocco

“…A major biotic turnover is associated with these environmental changes, though not the major mass extinction (i.e., 53% marine species extinct) as originally proposed based on invertebrate macrofossils (Raup and Sepkoski, 1982;Sepkoski, 1989;Jablonski, 1981). More recent studies on macrofossils reveal a pattern of immigration-emigration associated with sea level changes, rather than true extinctions (Harries, 1993;Gale et al, 2000), placing in doubt the original data compilation.…”

Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in Rugged Fitness Landscapes

“…An additional reason to keep an open mind on the issue of modeling is that even the interpretation of rather basic data is still open to discussion. It has for instance been suggested [18,19] that extinction events should be periodic, with a a) The extinction rate (extinction per million years) for families of marine vertebrates and invertebrates is plotted as a function of geological time. These data are redrawn from Ref.…”

Stratigraphic significance of carbon isotope variations in the shallow-marine Seis/Siusi Permian–Triassic boundary section (Southern Alps, Italy)

“…The most severe mass extinction of the Phanerozoic affected marine and continental biota in the latest Permian, close to the Permian-Triassic (P-T) boundary (e.g., Schindewolf 1953;Sepkoski 1989;Raup 1991;Erwin 2006;Kozur 1998a). This event was accompanied by spectacular global environmental changes, involving significant perturbations of Earth's carbon cycle expressed as a prominent negative carbon-isotope excursion (e.g., Chen et al 1984;Holser & Magaritz 1987;Magaritz et al 1988;Holser et al 1989;Oberhånsli et al 1989;Wang et al 1994;Morante 1996;Wignall et al 1998;Heydari et al 2000;Twitchett et al 2001;Musashi et al 2001;Wit et al 2002;Sephton et al 2002;Korte et al 2004aKorte et al , 2004bKorte et al , 2004cKorte et al , 2005Thomas et al 2004;Korte & Kozur 2005a, 2005bAlgeo et al 2007aAlgeo et al , 2007bConey et al 2007;Riccardi et al 2007).…”