PERMACLIM: a model for the distribution of mountain permafrost, based on climatic observations

Guglielmin, Mauro; Aldighieri, Barbara; Testa, Bruno

doi:10.1016/s0169-555x(02)00221-0

Cited by 33 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In all these models, the permafrost probability increases upslope (e.g. Hoelzle et al, 2001;Guglielmin et al, 2003;Riseborough et al, 2008), which is in contradiction to the data shown here.…”

Section: Permafrost Distributioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Internal structure and permafrost distribution in two alpine periglacial talus slopes, Valais, Swiss Alps

et al. 2011

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In order to determine the spatial extension and the characteristics of permafrost within alpine talus slopes, two sites located in the western part of the Swiss Alps were studied using borehole drilling and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles. Three boreholes were drilled along an upslope-downslope transect in both talus slopes. In both sites, frozen sediments are present only in the two lowest boreholes, whereas the upper borehole does not present ice. This stratigraphy is confirmed by ground temperatures registered in the boreholes. In each site, three upslope-downslope ERT profiles were crossed with five, respectively four horizontal ERT profiles. All the upslope-downslope profiles show a difference in resistivities between the upper and lower parts of the slope, where a large resistive body with values higher than 35 kΩm is present. In the uppermost part of the profiles, the resistivities are lower than 10-15 kΩm. The borehole data allowed the stratigraphy obtained from the ERT inverted profiles to be validated, with regards to the distribution of frozen sediments as well as the depth of the detected structures. The results confirm that, in the two studied sites, permafrost is present in the lower sections of the talus slopes, whereas it is absent in the upper parts. Finally, the analysis of the talus structure showed that the permafrost stratigraphy, and in particular the ice content, may be an important element of interpretation of the palaeoclimatic significance of an alpine talus slope.

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Section: Permafrost Distributioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Internal structure and permafrost distribution in two alpine periglacial talus slopes, Valais, Swiss Alps

et al. 2011

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“…Stocker et al (2002) developed PERMEBAL, which simulates snow cover persistence and ground temperatures of snow-free points based on meteorological and site-specific data. Guglielmin et al (2003) designed the PERMACLIM model that calculates ground temperatures for DEM points by including data from a climatic database and snow thermal characteristics. A variety of models have been created; however, discrepancies still exist as to which model is the most useful and effective for accurately representing the distribution of permafrost Lugon and Delaloye, 2001).…”

Section: Gis Modeling Of Alpine Permafrostmentioning

confidence: 99%

The occurrence of alpine permafrost in the Front Range of Colorado

Janke

2005

Geomorphology

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“…Permafrost mapping and modeling has been initiated in major mountain regions of the world (Keller, 1992;Hoelzle et al, 1993;Imhof, 1996;Frauenfelder et al, 1998;Etzelmüller et al, 2001;Gruber and Hoelzle, 2001;Lugon and Delaloye, 2001;Tannarro et al, 2001;Heginbottom, 2002;Guglielmin et al, 2003;Frauenfelder et al, 2003). In the Front Range (Figure 1), however, there is little precise information about permafrost distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling past and future alpine permafrost distribution in the Colorado Front Range

Janke

2005

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Rock glaciers, a feature associated with at least discontinuous permafrost, provide important topoclimatic information. Active and inactive rock glaciers can be used to model current permafrost distribution. Relict rock glacier locations provide paleoclimatic information to infer past conditions. Future warmer climates could cause permafrost zones to shrink and initiate slope instability hazards such as debris flows or rockslides, thus modeling change remains imperative. This research examines potential past and future permafrost distribution in the Colorado Front Range by calibrating an existing permafrost model using a standard adiabatic rate for mountains (0·5°C per 100 m) for a 4°C range of cooler and warmer temperatures. According to the model, permafrost currently covers about 12 per cent (326·1 km 2 ) of the entire study area (2721·5 km 2 ). In a 4°C cooler climate 73·7 per cent (2004·4 km 2 ) of the study area could be covered by permafrost, whereas in a 4°C warmer climate almost no permafrost would be found. Permafrost would be reduced severely by 93·9 per cent (a loss of 306·2 km 2 ) in a 2·0°C warmer climate; however, permafrost will likely respond slowly to change. Relict rock glacier distribution indicates that mean annual air temperature (MAAT) was once at least some 3·0 to 4·0°C cooler during the Pleistocene, with permafrost extending some 600-700 m lower than today. The model is effective at identifying temperature sensitive areas for future monitoring; however, other feedback mechanisms such as precipitation are neglected.

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PERMACLIM: a model for the distribution of mountain permafrost, based on climatic observations

Cited by 33 publications

References 11 publications

Internal structure and permafrost distribution in two alpine periglacial talus slopes, Valais, Swiss Alps

Internal structure and permafrost distribution in two alpine periglacial talus slopes, Valais, Swiss Alps

The occurrence of alpine permafrost in the Front Range of Colorado

Modeling past and future alpine permafrost distribution in the Colorado Front Range

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