Permafrost in the Caspian Basin as a Possible Trigger of the Late Khvalynian Transgression: Testing Hypothesis Using a Hydrological Model

Gelfan, Alexander; Kalugin, Andrey

doi:10.1134/s0097807821060063

Cited by 8 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 27 publications

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“…A process-based hydrological model [23] developed on the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) software [24] was used to study physically based regional water regime changes in the Volga basin. This model makes it possible to calculate the spatial distribution of the processes of snow cover and snowmelt formation; soil freezing and thawing; vertical heat and moisture transport in frozen and unfrozen soil; evapotranspiration; surface, subsurface and groundwater flow; and streamflow transformation in the channel system.…”

Section: Hydrological Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Kalugin

2022

Climate

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The idea of the research to assess the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century on the runoff formation in the Volga basin corresponds to the Paris agreement on climate change 2016 with the main goal to keep the global air temperature rise to below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial level and to take measures to limit warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to obtain physically based results of changes in the water regime of the Volga basin rivers under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial values. The physical and mathematical model of runoff generation ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) was applied in calculations using data from global climate models (GCMs). The estimation of flow anomalies of the Volga River and its major tributaries showed a decrease in annual runoff by 10–11% relative to the period from 1970 to 1999. The largest relative decrease in runoff by 17–20% was noted for the Oka and Upper Volga rivers, while the Kama River had only a 1–5% decrease. The Volga winter runoff increased by 17% and 28% under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, and negative runoff anomalies during the spring flood and the summer–autumn period turned out to be in the range of 21 to 23%. Despite the increase in precipitation, the role of evaporation in the water balance of the Volga basin will only increase.

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Section: Hydrological Model Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Kalugin

2022

Climate

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Cryogenic features and stages in Late Quaternary subaerial sediments of the Lower Volga region

Taratunina,

Kurbanov,

Rogov

et al. 2024

Quat. res.

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Situated at the southernmost limits of the late Pleistocene Eurasian permafrost zone, the loess–paleosol sequences of the Lower Volga region contain numerous traces of cryogenesis. Cryogenic features are represented by thin vertical wedges in loess and paleosols, and involutions and wedges in alluvial deposits. Here we describe and interpret four stages of cryogenesis during the late Pleistocene, based on analysis of cryogenic structure morphology, morphoscopy of quartz grains, and micromorphology of subaerial sediments, in addition to calculation of the Cryogenic Weathering Index and a new luminescence chronology derived from published ages. These stages differ in type and distribution of cryostructures and formed in different paleogeographic conditions. Stage I, dated 95–90 ka (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5b), is characterized by the existence of continuous permafrost in northern part of the Lower Volga valley. Stage II (75–70 ka, MIS 5a/MIS 4) is characterized by dry and cold conditions and widespread permafrost. During stage III (52–45 ka, MIS 3b/c), the permafrost was thin and of sporadic distribution. Stage IV (37–35 ka, MIS 3a) is characterized by thin and rare sporadic permafrost. The processes of cryogenic transformation of sediments in the region during these stages took place under both permafrost and seasonal frost conditions. The results obtained significantly improve current understanding of the extent of the permafrost in the south of the East European Plain during the late Pleistocene.

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Estimating Annual Volga Runoff in the Late Glacial Epoch from the Size of River Paleochannels

2021

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Permafrost in the Caspian Basin as a Possible Trigger of the Late Khvalynian Transgression: Testing Hypothesis Using a Hydrological Model

Cited by 8 publications

References 27 publications

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees

Cryogenic features and stages in Late Quaternary subaerial sediments of the Lower Volga region

Estimating Annual Volga Runoff in the Late Glacial Epoch from the Size of River Paleochannels

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