Persistence and decline of political parties: the case of Estonia

Abstract

The article explores the factors contributing to the decline and persistence of the political parties in Estonia, while proposing a more systematic framework for tackling the problem. The case study is focused on three Estonian parties (Res Publica, People's Union, and the Centre Party). The article puts forward an empirical framework in which three central dimensions are explored: (1) system-level variables; (2) external-dynamic variables; and (3) internal-organisational-level variables. The results of the analysis indicate that the quality of party leadership and the parties' attachment with the major cleavages in a given society are crucial factors in explaining the parties' persistence or demise.

When a Right-Wing Populist Party Inherits a Mass Party Organisation: The Case of EKRE

“…This resulted in a spiral of decline after 2006 when the party faced corruption charges. In the 2007 elections, ERL lost more than half of its seats (from 13 to six) and moved into opposition (Saarts, 2015). Subsequently, the party lost almost all support it had, and many prominent members joined other parties' ranks.…”

“…Thus, EKRE had a mass party type of organisation already from the outset. However, while ERL relied on its patronage networks and almost constant presence in government (Saarts, 2015), EKRE significantly strengthened the emphasis on ideology.…”

“…While ERL was rather pragmatic and technocratic (Saarts, 2015), EKRE describes itself as "the most ideological party in Estonia" (Helme, 2020). EKRE has a rather broad societal following and has been associated with a wider nativist conservative movement, which has been on the rise both internationally as well as in Estonian society since the mid-2010s (Kasekamp et al, 2019).…”

“…In contrast to its predecessor, EKRE has also achieved a solid presence in larger cities. While ERL tried to penetrate the cities (e.g., the capital city Tallinn), it never succeeded, and the party even failed to field a full list of candidates there (Saarts, 2015). By contrast, EKRE has founded vibrant branches in all electoral districts of Tallinn.…”

“…When comparing the centralisation of power and intra-party democracy in EKRE with its predecessor (ERL), one can find notable path-dependency: Both are fairly leader-centred parties with a leaning towards the diffused leadership model Saarts, 2015). However, ERL provided fewer arenas for an active engagement for its members: There were less frequent intra-party elections, fewer active affiliated organisations, and the internet engagement platforms were relatively underdeveloped, resulting in a less vibrant intra-party democracy.…”