Persistent COVID‐19 negative report of a physician in Bangladesh living and visiting in Red‐listed country with some special precaution followed

Nahin, Sabrina; Amin, Mohammad Ashraful

doi:10.1002/ccr3.5579

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In contrast, excess deaths were greater during the summer months. This scenario is compatible with the following hypotheses: i) the molecular swabs had a lower sensitivity to the variants of concern Delta and Omicron [26][27][28][29][30], ii) the testing capabilities were not sufficient [29,30], iii) the course of COVID-19 in some of the patients recovered has led to a progressive worsening of their conditions until death (e.g., long-COVID, overload of health facilities, damage psychological) [31][32][33], and iv) an anomalous cause of mortality has occurred (e.g., unexpectedly high temperatures) [34]. The first hypothesis is implausible since this situation should have also happened in winter; however, the possibility of connections with subvariants remains.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health

Rovetta¹

2023

Preprint

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(1) Background: This paper investigates the epidemiological risk related to temperature before and during COVID-19 in Italy; (2) Methods: Deaths in 2015-2019 and temperatures were correlated. Excess and COVID-19 deaths were examined to estimate the relationships with temperatures; (3) Results: Annual deaths were higher during the cold months (+45,000, SD = 4,700, S = 21). The scenario worsened during COVID-19. Mortality was higher during minimum temperature periods, although the curve moderately rose in the warmest months (r = -0.75, 95% CI = [-0.87; -0.56], S = 23). COVID-19 deaths showed a decreasing seasonality. Monthly excess deaths during COVID-19 were high (+4,200, IQR = [2,800; 8,000], S = 28) with a doubt of seasonality. COVID-19 mortality was correlated with regional latitude (r = 0.86, 95% CI = [0.68; 0.94], S = 20). Discrepancies between COVID-19 and excess deaths were found. The exposed population was subject to aging; (4) Conclusions: The epidemiological risk in Italy is seasonal and geographically dependent. Low and very high temperatures can lead to mortality peaks. Therefore, COVID-19 and any other epidemiological risk must be evaluated in light of this evidence. Health systems need to be strengthened during cold and extremely hot periods. Future research should investigate these phenomena at the causal level.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health

Rovetta¹

2023

Preprint

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Epidemiological Risk in Italy Increases During the Cold Season and Heatwaves: Considerations for Health Policies During COVID-19 and Future Crises.

Rovetta¹

2022

Preprint

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Background. The seasonality of COVID-19 is a debated topic within the scientific community. The goal of this paper is to bring SARS-CoV-2 into the factual context in Italy, investigating the interaction with seasonal factors that can aggravate the health crisis.Methods. The study is longitudinal retrospective. The relationship between the number of deaths in the period 2015-2019 and the average monthly temperatures was investigated. The excess deaths and confirmed deaths from COVID-19 in 2020, 2021, and 2022 were examined to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and its relationships with temperatures.Results. Cold months lead to a considerable and surprising increase in epidemiological risk and mortality in Italy from 2015 to 2019 (+45,000 annual deaths, SD = 4,700, S = 21). COVID-19 crisis has further aggravated this scenario during 2020 (+115,000) and 2021 (+63,000, S > 52). Mortality was boosted by low average minimum temperatures, although the death curve rose moderately during the four warmest months (Spearman r = -0.75, 95% CI = [-0.87; -0.56], S = 23). COVID-19 deaths also showed a pronounced seasonality, although the latter was decreasing over time (Spearman r = -0.85, 95% CI = [-0.92; -0.70], S = 20). Monthly excess deaths during COVID-19 were extremely high and surprising (+4,200, IQR = [2,800; 8,000], Wilcoxon signed rank test S = 28) but didn’t show a clear seasonality during 2021 and 2022. Overall COVID-19 mortality was strongly and surprisingly correlated with regional latitude (Spearman r = 0.86, 95% CI = [0.68; 0.94], S = 20). Discrepancies between COVID-19 and excess deaths during 2021 and 2022 suggest the occurrence of seasonal estimation errors.Discussion and conclusion. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that: i) the epidemiological risk is seasonal since cold seasons lead to higher mortality, ii) COVID-19's impact on public health is strongly influenced by both environmental/seasonal and virological factors, iii) temperatures' increase due to climate change is able to create summer mortality peaks. Future research should investigate the interrelation between all these epidemiological variables.

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Persistent COVID‐19 negative report of a physician in Bangladesh living and visiting in Red‐listed country with some special precaution followed

Cited by 2 publications

References 14 publications

COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health

COVID-19, Seasonality, and Historical Epidemiological Risk in Italy: Descriptive Study and Considerations for Public Health

Epidemiological Risk in Italy Increases During the Cold Season and Heatwaves: Considerations for Health Policies During COVID-19 and Future Crises.

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