Personalized Assessment of Mortality Risk and Hospital Stay Duration in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Treated with Remdesivir: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Despite widespread vaccination, early treatments, and improved understanding of the disease, the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection remain significant worldwide. Many patients still suffer from severe COVID-19, necessitating admission to intensive care units. Remdesivir is a primary treatment option among viral RNA polymerase inhibitors for hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients. However, there is a lack of studies examining factors influencing its effectiveness in this context. We conducted a retrospective study throughout 2022, analyzing clinical, laboratory, and sociodemographic data from 252 hospitalized COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir. Six machine learning algorithms were compared and validated to predict factors associated with the loss of clinical benefit from remdesivir in terms of mortality and hospital stay. Data were extracted from electronic health records. The eXtreme Gradient Boost (XGB) method achieved the highest balanced accuracy for both mortality (95.45%) and hospital stay (94.24%). Factors associated with worse outcomes of remdesivir use in terms of mortality included limitation of life support treatment, need for ventilatory support (especially invasive mechanical ventilation) on day 14 after the first dose of remdesivir, lymphopenia, low levels of albumin and hemoglobin, presence of flu and/or coinfection, and cough. Factors associated with worse outcomes of remdesivir use in terms of hospital stay included the number of doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, patchy lung density, bilateral pulmonary radiological status, number of comorbidities, oxygen therapy, troponin and lactate dehydrogenase levels, and asthenia. These findings highlight the effectiveness of XGB as a strong candidate for accurately categorizing COVID-19 patients undergoing remdesivir treatment.