Perspectives of regional paleoclimate modeling

Ludwig, Patrick; Gómez-Navarro, Juan José; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Raible, Christoph C.; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

doi:10.1111/nyas.13865

Cited by 48 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 119 publications

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“…2a and COHMAP Members, 1988). The increased frequency of cyclones over central Europe is consistent with the analysis of the LGM storm tracks, which deviated from their present-day course (Hofer et al, 2012), running either along central Europe, the Mediterranean, or the Nordic Seas (Florineth and Schlüchter, 2000;Luetscher et al, 2015;Ludwig et al, 2016). Their Mediterranean course is consistent with the Alpine, western, and southern European climate proxies (Luetscher et al, 2015).…”

Section: East Sector Winds and Cyclones Over Central Europesupporting

confidence: 79%

Linkage between dust cycle and loess of the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe

2020

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Abstract. This article establishes a linkage between the mineral dust cycle and loess deposits during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in Europe. To this aim, we simulate the LGM dust cycle at high resolution using a regional climate–dust model. The model-simulated dust deposition rates are found to be comparable with the mass accumulation rates of the loess deposits determined from more than 70 sites. In contrast to the present-day prevailing westerlies, winds from northeast, east, and southeast (36 %) and cyclonic regimes (22 %) were found to prevail over central Europe during the LGM. This supports the hypothesis that the recurring east sector winds associated with a high-pressure system over the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS) dominated the dust transport from the EIS margins in eastern and central Europe. The highest dust emission rates in Europe occurred in summer and autumn. Almost all dust was emitted from the zone between the Alps, the Black Sea, and the southern EIS margin. Within this zone, the highest emission rates were located near the southernmost EIS margins corresponding to the present-day German–Polish border region. Coherent with the persistent easterlies, westward-running dust plumes resulted in high deposition rates in western Poland, northern Czechia, the Netherlands, the southern North Sea region, and on the North German Plain including adjacent regions in central Germany. The agreement between the climate model simulations and the mass accumulation rates of the loess deposits corroborates the proposed LGM dust cycle hypothesis for Europe.

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Section: East Sector Winds and Cyclones Over Central Europesupporting

confidence: 79%

Linkage between dust cycle and loess of the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe

2020

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“…In line with a southward-displaced and stronger jet stream, several studies show a more intense and southward-shifted North Atlantic storm track compared to today's climate (e.g. Hofer et al, 2012;Luetscher et al, 2015;Ludwig et al, 2016). However, other studies display reduced storm track activity over the North Atlantic in spite of the enhanced baroclinicity (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for proxy interpretation

Pinto

Ludwig

2020

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are a dominant feature of the midlatitudes, as their passage is associated with strong winds, precipitation and temperature changes. The statistics and characteristics of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic region exhibit some fundamental differences between pre-industrial (PI) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. Here, the statistics are analysed based on results of a tracking algorithm applied to global PI and LGM climate simulations. During the LGM, both the number and the intensity of detected cyclones were higher compared to PI. In particular, increased cyclone track activity is detected close to the Laurentide ice sheet and over central Europe. To determine changes in cyclone characteristics, the top 30 extreme storm events for PI and LGM have been simulated with a regional climate model and high resolution (12.5 km grid spacing) over the eastern North Atlantic and western Europe. Results show that LGM extreme cyclones were characterised by weaker precipitation, enhanced frontal temperature gradients and stronger wind speeds than PI analogues. These results are in line with the view of a colder and drier Europe, characterised by little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to reallocation and build-up of thick loess deposits in Europe.

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“…Previous usage of the SPI in paleoclimatology focused on the index series. For example, Domínguez-Castro et al (2008) and Machado et al (2011) compare SPI series to differently derived hydroclimatic indices over approximately the last 500 years. Other studies reconstructed the SPI instead of absolute precipitation amounts (e.g., Seftigen et al, 2013;Yadav et al, 2015;Tejedor et al, 2016;Klippel et al, 2018).…”

Section: The Standardized Precipitation Index -Spimentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE

2019

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Abstract. The scarcity of long instrumental records, uncertainty in reconstructions, and insufficient skill in model simulations hamper assessing how regional precipitation changed over past centuries. Here, we use standardized precipitation data to compare a regional climate simulation, reconstructions, and long observational records of seasonal (March to July) mean precipitation in England and Wales over the past 350 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index is a valuable tool for assessing agreement between the different sources of information, as it allows for a comparison of the temporal evolution of percentiles of the precipitation distributions. These evolutions are not consistent among reconstructions, a regional simulation, and instrumental observations for severe and extreme dry and wet conditions. The lack of consistency between the different data sets may be due to the dominance of internal climate variability over the impact of natural exogenous forcing conditions on multi-decadal timescales. The disagreement between sources of information reduces our confidence in inferences about the origins of hydroclimate variability for small regions. However, it is encouraging that there is still some agreement between a regional simulation and observations. Our results emphasize the complexity of hydroclimate changes during the recent centuries and stress the necessity of a thorough understanding of the processes affecting forced and unforced precipitation variability.

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Perspectives of regional paleoclimate modeling

Cited by 48 publications

References 119 publications

Linkage between dust cycle and loess of the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe

Linkage between dust cycle and loess of the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe

Extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for proxy interpretation

Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE

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