This special issue is the third in a four-part series, Health Care Through the 'Lens of Risk', which focus on risk categorisation, valuing, expecting and time-framing respectively, and published or to be published in 2012 and 2013. The present editorial introduces the issue of probabilistic thinking about health in relation to an interview-based article and five substantial research papers, with further papers to appear subsequently in an annex in the next issue of Health, Risk & Society.