Pest categorisation of Thecodiplosis japonensis

Bragard, Claude; Baptista, Paula; Chatzivassiliou, Elisavet; Serio, Francesco Di; Gonthier, Paolo; Miret, Josep Anton Jaques; Justesen, Annemarie Fejer; Magnusson, Christer Sven; Milonas, Panagiotis; Navas‐Cortés, Juan A; Parnell, Stephen; Potting, Roel; Reignault, Philippe Lucien; Stefani, Emilio; Thulke, Hans‐Hermann; Werf, Wopke Van der; Civera, Antonio Vicent; Yuen, Jonathan; Zappalà, Lucia; Grégoire, Jean‐Claude; Malumphy, Chris; Kertész, Virág; Maiorano, Andrea; MacLeod, Alan

doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2022.7088

Cited by 2 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Given the similarities with L. orbonalis from Asia, and the paucity of data on African species of Leucinodes, much of the assessment of African Leucinodes spp. follows the same steps and uses the same values for model inputs as were used in the quantitative assessment of L. orbonalis from Asia (EFSA PLH Panel, 2024). However, new estimate values were determined for three key steps in the pathway model (i) quantity of Solanum host fruit imported from sub‐Sahara Africa to the EU, (ii) weight of an individual Solanum host fruit (e.g.…”

Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Panel used the lag phase and spread rate estimated in the pest risk assessment of L. orbonalis (EFSA PLH Panel, 2024). That estimation was based on L. laisalis , a species related to the Asian L. orbonalis and one of the nine Leucinodes species present in Africa.…”

Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Four of the African Leucinodes species have been intercepted in Europe in imports at the border and identified to species based on genitalia morphology and/or DNA ‘barcode’ sequences (Mally et al., 2015): L. africensis , L. pseudorbonalis and L. rimavallis , which are externally indistinguishable from each other and from the Asian L. orbonalis , and the greyish‐brown L. laisalis , which was reported as Sceliodes laisalis or Daraba laisalis in earlier literature. The latter species has established in the south of Spain and Portugal, with observations from 1958 to 2023 (EFSA PLH Panel et al., 2024, Appendix D). The African Leucinodes species have mainly been intercepted from garden egg ( S. aethiopicum ), contrary to the Asian L. orbonalis , which is mainly intercepted from aubergine/eggplant/brinjal ( Solanum melongena ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Were the African Leucinodes species to be introduced into the EU, the Panel estimates that it would take between 4.9 and 92.2 years (90% CR; median 34.5 years) for populations to grow sufficiently before a steady rate of spread of ~ 2.28 km/year (90% CR 0.65–7.02 km/year) was reached. For the underlying reasoning, estimates and uncertainties, please see Appendix E of EFSA PLH Panel (2024).…”

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The level of pest infestation in trade is often the largest uncertainty in quantitative pest risk assessments (e.g. EFSA PLH Panel, 2016a, 2016b, 2017a, 2017b, 2023, 2024). The next largest uncertainty in the model is the estimate of the proportion of adults that escape from discarded domestic waste and complete their development (14%).…”

Section: Additional Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union

Bragard,

Baptista,

Chatzivassiliou

et al. 2024

EFS2

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Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested imports within EU, (iii) climatic conditions favouring establishment, (iv) spread and (v) impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness was not quantified. Leucinodes spp. are widely distributed across sub-Saharan Africa but are little studied and they could be much more widespread in Africa than reported. Much African literature erroneously reports them as Leucinodes orbonalis which is restricted to Asia. The import of eggplant type fruit from sub-Saharan Africa consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU. The main pathway for entry is fruit of Solanum aethiopicum and exotic varieties of eggplant (S. melongena). CLIMEX modelling was used with two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to assess establishment potential. Climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or where 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Over the next 5 years, an annual median estimate of ~ 8600 fruits, originating from Africa, and infested with African Leucinodes spp. are expected to enter EU NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 570-52,700); this drops to ~ 5200 (90% CR ~ 350-32,100) in NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste; considering uncertainties in pathway transfer, such as adult emergence, mate finding and survival of progeny, the annual median probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in NUTS regions where EI ≥ 15 was estimated to be 0.0078 (90% CR 0.00023-0.12125). This equates to a median estimate of one founder population ~ every 128 years (90% CR approximately one every 8-4280 years). Using an EI ≥ 30, the median number of founder populations establishing in the EU annually is 0.0048 (90% CR 0.0001-0.0739), equating to a median estimate of one founder population approximately every 210 years (90% CR approximately one every 14-7020 years). Under climate change for the period 2 of 57 |

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Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Additional Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union

Bragard,

Baptista,

Chatzivassiliou

et al. 2024

EFS2

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Risk assessment of Phlyctinus callosus for the EU

Bragard,

Baptista,

Chatzivassiliou

et al. 2024

EFS2

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Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Phlyctinus callosus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a polyphagous pest occurring in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023–2032). The Panel identified the import of apples, cut flowers and table grapes as the most relevant entry pathways. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of approximately 49.5 (90% certainty range, CR, ranging from 4.0 to 881.2) potential P. callosus founder populations are expected. When the probability of establishment is considered and climatic indicators are used to define the areas in the EU where establishment is possible, the model estimated a median of 1 founder population every 1.3 years (90% CR: 1 every 30.8 years to 23.3 per year) in the scenario where the areas are defined by the union of all the climatic indicators and 1 founder population every 11.9 years (90% CR: 1 every 256.6 years to 2.5 per year) in the scenario where establishment is possible only in the areas defined by the climatic indicator of minimum soil temperature. The estimated number of founder populations per year is mostly driven by the probability of establishment in the rural areas, infestation rate in table grapes and the probability of transfer to a suitable host in the rural area. The risk of entry for cut flowers and apples is substantially lower than the risk from the table grapes. If such founder populations were to establish, P. callosus is estimated to spread by natural dispersal and common agricultural practices at a rate of 15.5 m/year (90% CR 5.1–46.8 m/year) after a lag phase of 4.0 years (90% CR 1.3–8.7 years). The impact, expressed as percentage loss of the production directly attributable to P. callosus in the areas where establishment is possible and assuming farmers do not apply specific control measures was estimated at 0.5% (90% CR 0.01%–2.8%) for cut flowers/foliage, 5.2% (90% CR 2.2%–11.7%) for apples and 2% (90% CR 1.3%–5.2%) for table grapes. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness is not quantified.

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Pest categorisation of Thecodiplosis japonensis

Cited by 2 publications

References 29 publications

Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union

Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union

Risk assessment of Phlyctinus callosus for the EU

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