Pest occurrence model in current climate - validation study for European domain

Abstract

SVOBODOVÁ EVA, TRNKA MIROSLAV, DUBROVSKÝ MARTIN, SEMERÁDOVÁ DANIELA, EITZINGER JOSEF, ŽALUD ZDENĚK, ŠTĚPÁNEK PETR: Pest occurrence model in current climatevalidation study for European domain. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 2013, LXI, No. 1, pp. 205-214 The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verifi ed by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shi s of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe.climate change, climate matching, pests, endangered areas, northern range, CLIMEX Productivity of crops grown for human consumption is at risk due to the incidence of pests, especially weeds, pathogens and animal pests, for instance without crop protection almost 75 % of attainable potato production would be lost to pests (OERKE, 2006). Pest life cycles are aff ected by various factors, among which climate conditions are the most signifi cant. Climate can limit the distribution of a species directly by infl uencing survival and fecundity or indirectly through its eff ects on interacting species, including food sources, natural enemies and competitors (GASTON, 2003). Under current climate conditions, insect species diversity per area tends to decrease with increasing latitude. A similar trend is usually seen with increasing altitude (GASTON, WILLIAMS, 1996).The present validation study represents the base material for forthcoming studies estimating the occurrence area of selected pests in the conditions of climate change. Projected studies will focused on the geographical shi of species northern range and determination of areas the most endangered by newly species establishment. Warmer conditions of climate change may be expected to promote pole ward extension of the ranges of species that are currently limited by low temperature. Changes in climate may result in alterations in the geogra...

Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change

“…All of the pest model validations based on parameterisation of the factors determining pest distribution patterns were considered to be successful . Overall, the predicted potential distributions corresponded well to the known core distribution areas for each species.…”

“…For the same area in Europe, the models for four additional pests were validated ( L. botrana , O. melanopus , R. padi and S. avenae ). The validation results were described in detail in the preliminary validation study and are summarised below …”

“…The validation results were described in detail in the preliminary validation study and are summarised below. 19 Validation was performed for the European region using the CRU TS 1.2 data for current climate conditions . 20,21 Following model validation and calibration, the input meteorological data were modified according to climate change scenarios determined by the pattern scaling method, in which standardised scenarios (scenarios related to a 1 K rise in global mean temperature, T G ) derived from five global circulation models (GCMs) -MPEH5, CSMK3, IPCM4, GFCM21 and HADGEM -are multiplied by T G [2055 versus the reference period 1961-1990, determined by the MAGICC model (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/)].…”

Assessing the current and future biological control potential of Trichogramma ostriniae on its hosts Ostrinia furnacalis and Ostrinia nubilalis

“…and Svobodová et al . in the Czech Republic and most European areas, taking into account the use of different climate backgrounds here, and the expected minor idiosyncrasies between datasets. Another test of the CLIMEX model is to generate weekly changes in GI w over an average year for a location and compare this ‘modelled suitability’ with observed phenology based on trapping of adult moths (Fig.…”

“…The CLIMEX model for ECB was compared to previous model results from Trnka et al . and Svobodová et al …”