Peter J. Hammond

Mongin, Philippe

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-62769-0_12

Studies in Choice and Welfare

2021

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-62769-0_12

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Peter J. Hammond

Philippe Mongin

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2023

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Prerationality as Avoiding Predictably Regrettable Consequences

Hammond¹

2023

Revue Économique

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Following previous work on consequentialist decision theory, we consider an unrestricted domain of finite decision trees, including continuation subtrees, with: (i) decision nodes where the decision maker must make a move; (ii) chance nodes at which a "roulette lottery" with exogenously specified strictly positive probabilities is resolved; (iii) event nodes at which a "horse lottery" is resolved. A complete family of binary conditional base preference relations over Anscombe-Aumann lottery consequences is defined to be "prerational" just in case there exists a behaviour rule that is defined throughout the tree domain which is explicable as avoiding, under all predictable circumstances, consequences that are regrettable given what is feasible. Prerationality is shown to hold if and only if all conditional base preference relations are complete and transitive, while also satisfying both the independence axiom of expected utility theory and a strict form of Anscombe and Aumann's extension of Savage's sure thing principle. Assuming that the base relations satisfy non-triviality and a generalized form of state independence that holds even when consequence domains are state dependent, prerationality combined with continuity on Marschak triangles is equivalent to representation by a refined subjective expected utility function that excludes zero probabilities.

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Prerationality as Avoiding Predictably Regrettable Consequences

Hammond¹

2023

Revue Économique

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Peter J. Hammond

Cited by 1 publication

References 120 publications

Prerationality as Avoiding Predictably Regrettable Consequences

Prerationality as Avoiding Predictably Regrettable Consequences

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