Petropolitics and Pipeline Diplomacy in Central Asia: Can India Afford to Wait in the Wings?

Abstract

The fight for hegemony in Central Asia has existed for ages. Strategically placed between two nuclear powers—Russia and China—and geopolitically located at the heart of Eurasia, Central Asia has always remained in global limelight. Even after the disintegration of the USSR, the geopolitical importance of Central Asia never waned down, instead emerged as a grand chessboard for regional and extra-regional player for the immense opportunities it has offered in the form of widely untapped natural resources and geostrategic leverages. Importantly, it has emerged as the latest geological landscape for the energy crunch countries as potentially new and non-OPEC source of oil and natural gas. In the quest for energy security and diversity of supply sources by the energy consumers, the heartland region has witnessed a new great game in the scramble for resources. This accentuated struggle for oil and energy in the region has further led to aggressive foreign policy formulations and strategic calculation by countries like the United States, China, European Union, Japan, Israel, Iran, Pakistan and India, to which many now call as the New Great Game for not just controlling but administering the energy resources of the region. The bottom line of the New Great Game unlike the previous version is essentially played out around petropolitics and pipeline diplomacy. It is in this context this research article makes a modest attempt to examine the energy factor in the geopolitics of Central Asia and tries to figure out the position of India in the epic quest for oil in the traditional bastion of Russia and the new grand chessboard of China and the United States.

Energy Geopolitics and the New Great Game in Central Asia

“…Now, with Soviet republics as members, the European Union has the potential to be a major player for Central Asian energy. However, the European Union has only recently begun to harmonize the activities of its member states in the region, creating its first comprehensive Central Asia strategy paper in 2007 (Pradhan, 2019). One of the main projects this article advocates is the construction of the Nabucco pipeline.…”

“…However, due to historical reasons, it could not able to engage with the region before 1991. Washington started to develop new policies towards the region through the adoption of the Freedom Support Act in 1992, the Silk Road Strategy in 1999 and viewed the region as strategically vital given its location between America’s geopolitical rivals Russia and China and unstable South Asia (Pradhan, 2019). Initially, the United States also began to focus on the Central Asian energy sector after the US Department of Energy has predicted the potential of the Caspian Sea reserves to be around 200 billion barrels equivalent to that of Saudi Arab; the United States started giving importance to this region (Patnaik, 2016).…”

“…The net oil import dependency of India has increased by 43% in 1990 to 71% in 2012 (Raimondi, 2019). In 2017, the country has consumed 25.5 bcm of natural gas largely imported from Japan, China and South Korea (Pradhan, 2019). It is on this premise a favourable relationship with the energy-rich Central Asian countries will provide India with an unmatched opportunity to diversify its supply sources and arrest energy disruptions.…”

“…New Delhi’s efforts to become a vital strategic player largely depend on its close bilateral and strategic partnership with the Central Asian region. Although, politically, India is inching forward with its joining in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a member, seeking partnership with Eurasian Economic Union and growing role in BRICS (Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa), New Delhi is heavily legging behind in economic front (Pradhan, 2019). India needs to boost economic and trade ties with the region as deeper economic cooperation will give rise to coordinated energy cooperation in due course.…”

Energy Geopolitics and Pipeline Diplomacy in Central Asia: India’s Interests and Policy Options

“…The emergence of this region simultaneously with the ravenous energy crunch in the world and overdependence on the unstable Middle Eastern countries has undoubtedly invited global attention to this region, mainly focusing on the exploitation and control of energy resources of the region and administering the pipeline networks. For that, a silent rivalry is going on in this region, to which many call the “New Great Game,” while this article prefers to call it “petropolitics and pipeline diplomacy” among the key regional and global players for resources and influence (Pradhan 2019).…”