Getting a good rate of calves per cow and per year makes profitable a dairy farm. Taking into account that a postpartum cow is the best milk producer in a dairy herd, how to get pregnant these cows is an important studied topic for both veterinarians and dairy producers. Unfortunately, factors related with high milk yield, low body condition, high feed intake, low sexual hormone concentrations in the bloodstream, and health problems are associated with low fertility during postpartum (Butler, 2000(Butler, , 2003Sangsritavong et al., 2002;Vasconcelos et al., 2003; Ghavi HosseinZadeh, 2013). These factors are well interrelated each other making very difficult to predict them. Despite this, administration of exogenous progesterone is widely used in hormonal protocols for estrous (re)synchronization of dairy cattle without regarding pharmacological issues for dose calculation. This happens because it is difficult to estimate the progesterone metabolic level for each individual cow before administration. Recent kinetic analysis revealed a sigmoid saturation pattern of the progesterone depuration curve in lactating Holstein cows. In fact, by non-linear regression analysis, the Hill model has proved to be better than Michaelis-Menten kinetic model for describing such behavior
AbstractAdministration of exogenous progesterone is widely used in hormonal protocols for estrous (re)synchronization of dairy cattle without regarding pharmacological issues for dose calculation. This happens because it is difficult to estimate the metabolic level of progesterone for each individual cow before administration. In the present contribution, progesterone pharmacokinetics has been determined in lactating Holstein cows with different milk production yields. A Bayesian approach has been implemented to build two probabilistic progesterone pharmacokinetic models for high and low yield dairy cows. Such models are based on a one-compartment Hill structure. Posterior probabilistic models have been structurally set up and parametric probability density functions have been empirically estimated. Moreover, a global sensitivity analysis has been done to know sensitivity profile of each model. Finally, posterior probabilistic models have adequately recognized cow's progesterone metabolic level in a validation set when Kullback-Leibler based indices were used. These results suggest that milk yield may be a good index for estimating pharmacokinetic level of progesterone.Additional key words: progesterone pharmacokinetic; Hill equation; metabolism, milk yield; Bayesian modeling.* Corresponding author: lturino@intec.unl.edu.ar Received: 10-11-13. Accepted: 13-05-14.Abbreviations used: AIC (Akaike information criterion); AICm (modified version of Akaike information criterion); Cx (plasmatic progesterone concentration); DMI (dry matter intake); GSA (global sensitivity analysis); h (Hill coefficient); K (enzyme-substrate interaction constant); NEBAL (negative energy balance); PDF (probability density function); Si (principal sensitivity index); SSQ (r...